US Economics Update Productivity stagnation is biggest medium-term threat Putting aside the short-term threats from slower global economic growth, the stronger dollar and tightening financial conditions, the biggest medium-term threat to the living standards of Americans is... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Flat retail rents in Spain are not a sign of things to come Retail rents in Madrid and Barcelona were flat in Q4. Yet the steady outlook for consumption, coupled with strong growth in tourism, suggests that rents will resume their upward trend this year. 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC takes more dovish stance, extends koruna cap pledge The Czech MPC was even more dovish than we had expected at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference as it not only extended its commitment to keeping the exchange rate ceiling in place to 2017... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy more resilient than the markets While the latest data have raised fresh questions about the strength of the US economy, we think activity will recover because income growth remains strong while the drags from dollar appreciation and... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Adjusting to life in the slow lane The latest data and surveys from South Africa have been even worse than we had expected, and we have downgraded our 2016 growth forecast to a below-consensus 0.5%. A prolonged period of slow growth... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) The Halifax index recorded another strong monthly rise in house prices in January. But with house prices already high, we think that the current rate of growth won’t be sustained for much longer. 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Market turmoil not a major economic threat…yet The sharp falls in equity prices since the turn of the year are unlikely to prompt households or businesses to rein in their spending. In fact, when set against some measures of domestic activity, it... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Gold shines on global woes Precious metals’ performances continued to diverge in January. The prices of gold and silver rallied on the back of safe-haven demand following the recent turmoil in global equity markets. In contrast... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Government bonds – is Japan the next Switzerland? The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has fallen to a record low of less than 0.1% following the Bank of Japan’s decision to cut its deposit rate to -0.1%. We now forecast that the 10-year JGB... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why isn’t gold doing even better? The further gains in the price of gold today (to a high of $1,140 per ounce) are consistent with the relatively positive view we have had on the precious metal for some time. However, we are in no... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline jumped again last week, primarily due to an increase in imports of crude and weak demand for products respectively. However, the weather probably bears at least... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much will workers gain from the recovery? While we are positive about the prospects for productivity growth, we don’t think workers will fully benefit from this and the gains will only partially feed through to higher wage growth. This means... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jan.) The decline in the ISM non-manufacturing index to 53.5, from 55.8 is disappointing, particularly as it continues a sharp downward trend from the peak of 59.6 last July. Fed officials will be concerned... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A fall in mortgage interest rates helped to boost mortgage applications in January. And although we think rates will increase this year, a strong labour market and easing in lending standards will... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
