EM Markets Chart Pack Emerging markets show (some) resilience Notwithstanding some renewed pressure in recent days, financial markets in the emerging world have held up fairly well in the past month. Indeed, while bonds, equities and currencies have all fallen... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Zika virus unlikely to have major economic impact The Zika virus has hit the headlines in recent weeks due to its rapid spread across Latin America and the suspected link with thousands of cases of serious birth defects in Brazil. But, while it is... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Shift in rate expectations not justified by economic data Over the past few weeks, markets appear to have pushed back their expectation for the timing of the first hike in UK interest rates all the way to Q3 2019, and there has been some speculation of a... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sticking to our view that the US stock market will rebound We are pulling down our forecasts for the S&P 500. Nonetheless, our new projections still imply significant gains from the index’s current level. We are not tempted to throw in the towel and project a... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco to slow in 2016, but medium-term outlook bright A drought is likely to weigh heavily on Morocco’s agricultural sector this year and headline GDP growthlooks set to slow to around 2.5%, down from more than 4% in 2015. Nonetheless, with twin budget... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low oil prices give Turkey temporary reprieve Lower oil prices and a more dovish US Fed have given the Turkish economy a stay of execution and, as a result, we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.0% in 2016 (from 1.5%... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the shortage of homes for sale being overstated? There are some grounds to think that survey measures of the number of homes for sale may be being distorted by an increase in the total number of estate agent branches. That said, even after adjusting... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we expect more monetary policy U-turns? Experience since 2009 shows that the current crop of central bankers do not hesitate to change course if they think that is the right thing to do. Indeed, central banks in numerous advanced economies... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The jump in Mexican inflation in January, to 2.6% y/y, from 2.1% y/y in December, was due to a sharp rise in food inflation, which is likely to have been driven in part by a weaker currency. But with... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Dec.) December’s trade figures provide further evidence that the UK’s economic recovery remained reliant on the domestic services sector in Q4 2015. While we think fears of a sharp global slowdown are... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) Following a fairly disappointing Christmas period, January’s BRC sales figures suggested that consumers started the year on a strong footing. But with temporary props set to fade, spending growth in... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Dec.) December’s shockingly weak industrial production figures suggest the German economy barely grew in Q4 and pile further pressure on the ECB to match its dovish words with decisive action at its March... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Spending boost from net migration not departing just yet The record level of net migration appears to explain around half of the rise in real consumption in New Zealand in the past two years. If net migration slows steadily as is widely expected, then this... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Government struggling to resist austerity The European Commission made only minor concessions to the Portuguese Government over its 2016 Budget and the pace of fiscal consolidation will still be faster this year than last. This suggests that... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales bounce back following TRID disruption After collapsing in November, existing home sales bounced back in December. That volatility was caused by the introduction of TRID disclosure requirements, which pushed some sales from November into... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
