US Economics Weekly Domestic price pressures continue to mount Futures markets now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged for all of this year and anticipate a single 25 basis point hike next year. In contrast, we expect the Fed to begin raising rates again in... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Spending to slow this year, but prospects further ahead remain bright The boost to consumers’ spending power from low energy prices is set to fade this year. What’s more, households face a big fiscal squeeze. And with unemployment nearing its natural rate, there is less... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Could the market storm blow the recovery off course? The further bout of financial market turmoil last week has raised fears that a sharp slowdown in the UK economy may be on the horizon. But the strength of the labour market, loose monetary policy and... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the debt crisis back? There are ominous signs that the turmoil in financial markets is starting to have bigger effects on the euro-zone. While Q4’s GDP figures showed growth maintained its pace at the end of last year, the... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Resilience of industrial commodity prices reassuring Given the negativity in global equity markets, the relative stability of industrial commodity prices (especially metals) over the last few weeks has been reassuring. Even Brent crude, while slipping... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are negative rates doing more harm than good? In principle, cutting policy rates into negative territory should boost growth and inflation. But central banks have not communicated these benefits clearly, and the hesitant way in which they have... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) House price inflation slowed to 5.9% in January, from 6.2%, and the existing home-sales-to-listings ratio indicates that the pace of inflation will ease further in the coming months. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities weather global market turmoil relatively well For most of the last few months the headlines have been dominated by the rout in commodity prices. More recently, the focus has understandably shifted to the bear markets in equities. Nonetheless, the... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Jan) Commercial property transaction activity was muted in January. Encouragingly, however, sentiment towards UK property seems healthy. And if we are correct about the UK’s positive macroeconomic... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The markets may have decided that the economy is heading for a recession, but obviously no-one told US consumers. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The fall in Polish inflation in January, to a weaker-than-expected -0.7% y/y, appears to be due to a decline in core inflation. Accordingly, these figures raise the risk that the new-look MPC will... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Today’s CPI data for January confirm that the Reserve Bank was successful in meeting its near-term inflation target but also highlight the difficult task the RBI faces in achieving its medium-term... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver to outperform gold in 2016 While subdued industrial demand has been one of the main reasons behind the weakness in silver prices over the last few years, 2016 could be the turning point. Indeed, a recovery in the global... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Oil price falls won’t prevent inflation pick-up January’s consumer prices figures should show a continuing movement away from deflation. While falling oil prices are being passed through to lower fuel prices at the pump, fuel price deflation will... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We still expect euro-zone and UK equities to rebound We are nudging down our end-2016 forecasts for the euro-zone and UK stock indices in light of the recent market turmoil. Nevertheless, we still expect them to rebound. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
