Industrial Metals Update What, if anything, can copper price arbitrage activity tell us? The recent strength in China’s copper imports has been dismissed by many commentators as a response to an import arbitrage opportunity, rather than as a sign of a pick-up in demand. While the... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the monetary data pointing to global downturn? While some recent survey evidence has hinted that loan growth in the US may be about to slow, money and credit data in the four major advanced economies as a whole so far provide little support for... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Stagnant industrial output at the end of last year means that the sector probably added a meagre 0.1%-pt to overall GDP growth in Q4. Industry may remain under pressure in the near term, but we still... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Dec.) The better-than-expected South African manufacturing and mining data for December provided a rare piece of good news for the economy, but even so it looks like GDP growth over Q4 as a whole probably... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay in double digits for most of this year Egyptian inflation came in at 10.1% y/y in January and, with a looming devaluation of the pound and the government preparing the ground for a fresh round of subsidy cuts, it is likely to remain in (or... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What can Japan do about a stronger yen? The surge in the yen against the US dollar has understandably raised expectations of further action to weaken the Japanese currency. We think the Bank of Japan is unlikely to intervene directly in the... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines to keep rates on hold The decision by the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 4.0% came as no surprise. With growth picking up but inflation low, we doubt the central bank will be... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jan.) This month’s RICS survey showed new buyer enquiries and new sales instructions picking up for a second month in a row. It seems increasingly likely that the first quarter of the year will see a... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Dec.) Turkey’s current account deficit widened in December from November, but that was largely due to seasonal factors and the underlying trend is still one of an improving external position. The upshot is... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of crude oil fell slightly last week, while gasoline stocks continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace. The key driver of the dip in crude stocks was a sharp drop in net imports. A small... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing imbalances continue to worsen Nothing illustrates the regional divergence in Canada’s economy like housing. While house prices continue to surge in the already most over-valued markets in Vancouver and Toronto, Calgary and other... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Watch OPEC production rose in January as output rebounded after December’s small fall. Even though demand is set to grow by over 1m bpd this year and non-OPEC supply should fall, bulging stocks and high... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen sticks to view that interest rates will rise gradually Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress today revealed that, while the FOMC might not be ready to raise interest rates for a second time in March, she still anticipates a “gradual” series of... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are mortgage lending standards being eased too far? Survey evidence shows that banks have relaxed mortgage lending standards in every quarter for the past two years, and the average down payment is currently no larger than that seen just prior to the... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
