US Economics Update Inflation expectations – are they really falling? The slump in market-based breakeven inflation rates has raised fears that falling inflation expectations could trigger a deflationary spiral in the US. But breakeven rates are measures of inflation... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will fiscal policy derail the recovery? Contrary to what many newspaper headlines claimed after the Autumn Statement towards the end of last year, we have not reached the end of austerity. Not in the slightest. However, we think that the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account surplus will keep Danish krone strong Denmark’s large current account surplus should narrow in the coming years as the economic recovery there takes hold, but it will not disappear entirely. This will sustain the upward pressure on the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina debt offer encouraging, but more work still to do Argentina’s debt proposal to US holdout creditors is an encouraging development, but there are still a number of hurdles to overcome in order for the government to return to global capital markets. 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is emerging market debt the ‘third leg’ of the Global Financial Crisis? 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Today’s release of another set of strong GDP data alongside upward revisions to earlier quarters’ growth rates is more likely to deepen doubts about the quality of the official data than improve... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Tightening world rice market to give prices a lift With El Niño reducing rice production in key producing and exporting countries, a tighter world market should give the price of Thai rice a lift this year, despite headwinds from weakness in the baht... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Revising, but not renouncing, our view of US Treasuries We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield. Nonetheless, our new forecasts still imply that the yield will climb significantly from its current level of 1.8%, as the Fed... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can EMs exploit weaker currencies? EMs are much better placed now than in the past to weather potential problems caused by sharp drops in their currencies. But by the same token, those EMs that have seen the largest falls in their... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s steel slowdown to keep iron ore prices under pressure Iron ore prices have now recovered from December’s lows, close to our end-year forecast. We expect demand from China’s steel sector to disappoint this year, so wouldn’t be surprised to see prices dip... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Chilean inflation in January was largely due to planned tax increases and had been anticipated. As such, we don’t expect it to a trigger a policy response from the central bank and... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the euro-zone’s peripheral economies generally improved theirbudgetary positions last year. But, with the exception of Ireland, their public debt is not yet falling... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Financial Crisis: Part III? The recent problems in many emerging markets have revived fears that the world is only now entering a ‘third leg’ of the global financial crisis (GFC) – the first being the meltdown in the sub-prime... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in December, of 4.5% y/y, provides further evidence that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole was robust. We think the economy may have... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) The continued stagnation in wage growth in December is disappointing and suggests that the outlook for labour income is even bleaker than we thought. This supports our view that the Bank of Japan will... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Current account surplus will keep Danish krone strong Denmark’s large current account surplus should narrow in the coming years as the economic recovery there takes hold, but it will not disappear entirely. This will sustain the upward pressure on the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
