UK Economics Chart Pack UK weathers market mayhem well so far Financial markets got off to a tumultuous start to the year, but the economy has begun 2016 on a slightly stronger footing. The Markit/CIPS surveys point to quarterly GDP growth of around 0.6%, a... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Where in the Gulf is the threat of devaluation greatest? We have argued for some time that the Gulf economies are in a strong position to weather a period of low oil prices and, despite speculation in markets, that dollar pegs won’t be abandoned. Bahrain... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia to spend another year in recession The recent run of weak data, coupled with the latest fall in oil prices, has prompted us to revise our forecasts for Russia. We now expect the economy to contract by 1.3% this year and grow by just 0... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about the Irish election? Given the political turbulence after recent elections in Spain and Portugal, there are some concerns about the potential outcome of the Irish election, now scheduled for just three weeks’ time. But... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that the consumer sector lost some steam at the end of last year. And the final PMIs for January added to the evidence that the wider recovery had a slow... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jan.) January’s Markit/CIPS report on services provided further evidence that the economic recovery has started 2016 on a slightly stronger note. But firms have become a bit more wary about the near-term... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) The further drop in ‘whole economy’ PMIs in the Gulf in January adds to evidence that tightening fiscal policy is beginning to weigh on growth. Elsewhere, the surveys suggest that Egypt’s economy... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation in January, of 9.6% y/y, was partly driven by administered price hikes and what is likely to be a temporary unwinding of the impact of the decline in global... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates unchanged in 2016 The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today came as no surprise. With the economy gradually recovering and the government stepping up efforts to support... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite a small drop last month, consumer confidence remains strong. However, household inflation expectations are now approaching levels last seen before the Bank of Japan launched Quantitative and... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Dec.) December’s international trade and building approvals data cast doubt on the RBA’s view that there are “reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy”. This is especially the case when... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will negative rates hamper the BOJ’s ability to buy JGBs? With longer-term interest rates falling alongside short-term rates, the introduction of negative rates will not hamper the Bank of Japan’s ability to purchase large amounts of government bonds. Nor... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) The astonishing plunge in the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of last year, to a six-year low of 5.3% from 6.0% in the third quarter, decreases the chances that the RBNZ will reduce interest... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Has the sell-off in equities gone too far? There are signs that the collapse in emerging market (EM) equity prices, spurred by concerns that China’s economy is heading for a hard landing, has gone too far. We believe that China’s economy will... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Taking stock of the fall in US winter wheat plantings The release of the USDA’s winter wheat seeding report, the agency’s first estimate of US winter wheat acreage, points to the possibility of a fall in production this year, not just for winter wheat... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
