Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Loan rumours leave key questions unanswered A reported US$3.5bn loan from the World Bank and AfDB would only cover about 15% of Nigeria’s gross external financing requirement. In any case, a loan would come with politically difficult conditions... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s January manufacturing PMI provided further bad news for the beleaguered economy. The risk of a further slowdown in GDP growth this year is growing. The survey also showed that the fall... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How generous is London Help to Buy? In terms of its direct impact on a buyer’s monthly outlays, London Help to Buy appears to be a significantly more generous subsidy than the original equity loan scheme that it supplements. But in... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provided further evidence that the Central European economies made a robust start to the year. Admittedly, the Polish PMI was weak, but there are... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) India's manufacturing PMI rose at the start of 2016, but the reading remains weak by past standards. The big picture is that local industry continues to face significant structural headwinds. 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The January PMIs for Emerging Asia were generally disappointing and underline the fragility of the region’s manufacturing recovery. 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jan.) Today's manufacturing PMIs offer conflicting signals on the state of the economy going into 2016. On balance though, they suggest conditions remained subdued but broadly stable last month. 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Tumultous start to 2016 Chinese equities have already lost nearly a quarter of their value so far this year. Meanwhile, the renminbi is once again tracking the dollar closely and skirting the weak edge of its apparent trade... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty unlikely to clear for another few months The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely last week, but it was deliberately non-committal about the risks to the outlook. It's debatable whether the current uncertainty will... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation will fall further below 2% this year The sinking Canadian dollar has prevented the annual core CPI inflation rate from falling below the mid-point of the Bank of Canada 1% to 3% inflation target range, despite the worsening economic... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries shed light on fiscal plans The raft of budgets announced in the Gulf over the past month should help to ease concerns that these countries lack a clear agenda to adjust to cheap oil. The Saudi government has already cut energy... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth slowed further in Q4, but is set to recover We estimate that world GDP growth fell below 2% annualised in Q4 2015, its slowest pace in over three years. But growth should rebound to 3% or so this year, as China, Japan and the US regain some... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dips – but no sign of collapse Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth dipped again in November. However, this was driven overwhelmingly by a deepening downturn in Brazil – and more recent survey data have provided some hope that... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Further rally in oil price may need stronger foundations This week’s big story has, of course, been the rebound in oil prices (to nearly $35pb) on unconfirmed reports that Russia and OPEC may finally be willing to agree coordinated cuts in output. We are... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The market implications of negative interest rates in Japan 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergent inflation outlook The divergence in EM inflation looks set to persist throughout 2016. In Emerging Asia, Central Europe and parts of the Middle East, low oil prices will help keep inflation muted. But in some of the... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
