UK Economics Weekly Rebalancing remains a distant prospect The composition of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 highlighted the lack of progress in rebalancing the economy. And we think the near-term prospects aren’t much better. But we do believe the... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Calm returns to Asian financial markets Asia’s markets were badly caught up in the global sell-off earlier in the month, and although sentiment seems to have settled down in recent days, most of the region’s equity markets are still down... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India to remain a major importer of gold, for now While the response to India’s Gold Monetisation Scheme has been fairly muted so far, the Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme has been a success, having attracted the equivalent of almost four tonnes of gold... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected 2.5% y/y rise in Mexican GDP in Q4 confirmed that economic growth remained solid – if unspectacular – in the fourth quarter. We expect the economy to kick on this year as... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) After stagnating in October, the economy grew by 0.3% m/m in November, albeit partly on account of what we believe was a very short-lived rebound in oil production. As things stand now, we estimate... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian markets suffer as economy falters The latest drop in oil prices, combined with Abuja’s unorthodox economic policies, sent Nigeria’s financial markets into a tailspin this month. Financial markets elsewhere on the continent also... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The slowdown in GDP growth to a very modest 0.7% annualised in the final quarter of last year is a temporary blip. With employment increasing by a monthly average of 284,000 during that quarter and... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is France in a state of economic emergency? President François Hollande’s declaration in a speech earlier this month that France is in a “state of economic emergency” was hardly reassuring. But, if it’s even possible, we would actually argue... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) The weaker-than-expected Chilean activity data for December confirm that the economy slowed in Q4. Our GDP Tracker suggests the economy grew by a lacklustre 2.0% y/y over Q4 as a whole. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another bumper month (and year) for China’s REE exports In December, China’s rare earth (REE) exports were up by nearly 50% m/m – much higher than the 10% m/m average growth seen since the start of 2012. We believe the sharp increase was partly seasonal... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC takes a hawkish view as ruble falls The Russian central bank kept its benchmark one-week repo rate on hold at 11.00% earlier today, but the markedly more hawkish tone of the accompanying statement makes it clear that rate cuts – which... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Dec.) House price growth accelerated in December, with the southern regions of the UK continuing to lead the pack. But the latest drop in transactions growth may be a sign that the current pick-up in house... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about property price bubbles? Hong Kong made international headlines last week after it was shown to have the least affordable property market in the world. But Hong Kong is not the only economy in the region where property prices... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) January’s small rise in euro-zone CPI inflation presents no impediment to decisive additional policy loosening by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next meeting in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are Japanese firms struggling in China? The fact that Japanese firms have fared much worse in China than their competitors since the yen started weakening in 2012 suggests that their competitiveness has waned. However, firms have at least... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How big are the risks to retail rental growth in Stockholm? We do not expect either a slowing in house price growth or the newly-built Mall of Scandinavia to derail our retail rental value growth forecasts for Stockholm. As a result, we believe that in terms... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
