Latin America Data Response Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The small fall in Mexico’s headline manufacturing PMI is a disappointing sign that the factory sector remained relatively weak at the start of 2016. However, we still expect conditions to improve over... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How low can policy rates go? The Bank of Japan last week became the fifth central bank to impose negative rates and we now expect it to lower its deposit rate to -0.7% by the end of this year. If policy eventually needed to be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Another headwind for wheat prices if Russia lowers export tax Russian ministers are set to meet on Wednesday to decide whether or not to remove the wheat export tax. We think the removal of the tax would put more downward pressure on wheat prices, although the... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We think sub-zero long-term JGB yields lie ahead We expect the Bank of Japan to reduce its deposit rate much further into negative territory over the course of the next year. (See our Japan Economics service for details.) This reinforces our view... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) While we wouldn’t place too much faith in December’s reading of a strong 1.5% m/m gain in house prices, the latest CoreLogic report continues the recent theme of gradually rising house prices as... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Mixed outlook for the major commodity currencies The recovery in commodity prices over the last week or so has eased the selling pressure on the dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada since the start of the year. However, we wouldn’t be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update EU draft deal leaves Brexit in the balance Today’s publication of a draft deal on the UK’s EU negotiations is another step towards a referendum as soon as June. The modest proposed reforms will probably leave the vote very close. If the UK did... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights overvaluation concerns in core markets The most notable development in the latest RICS Global Commercial Property surveys is the increase in the proportion of respondents who view property in the core European markets as expensive. Yet a... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights overvaluation concerns in core markets The most notable development in the latest RICS Global Commercial Property surveys is the increase in the proportion of respondents who view property in the core European markets as expensive. Yet a... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s privatisation plans The recent talk of a new wave of privatisation in Russia has attracted much attention, but we suspect that there is less to the proposed plans than meets the eye. While these may temporarily improve... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And the still deeply negative rate of producer price inflation points to more... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jan.) Last month’s jump in commercial property construction activity was more than fully reversed in January. While market turmoil and the spectre of the EU referendum may be holding back some commercial... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How far and how fast will inflation and interest rates rise? The tumble in inflation from the most recent peak of just over 5% in late-2011 to an average of 0% in 2015 has provided a welcome boost to the economy. But with near-zero rates of inflation now in the... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Has the sell-off in equities gone too far? There are signs that the collapse in emerging market (EM) equity prices, spurred by concerns that China’s economy is heading for a hard landing, has gone too far. We believe that China’s economy will... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, no change likely in 2016 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, while the consensus is expecting further modest loosening later this year, we think that rates will remain unchanged... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
