Energy Update Focus on Brent hides greater weakness in OPEC’s prices The recent sharp falls and partial recovery in the price of Brent crude oil have grabbed the headlines. But focusing on Brent (or the traditional US benchmark WTI) alone doesn’t tell the whole story... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should Bangladesh be getting more attention? Bangladesh is one of the best-placed countries in Asia to take advantage of rising costs in China, and we expect it to grow by around 6% a year on average over the next decade. Given its size and... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Budget proposals could stoke price pressures Inflation is likely to have risen at the start of 2016 on account of a further small rise in food inflation. Looking ahead, the FY16/17 budget is likely to incorporate a significant rise in public... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will negative rates lower bank lending rates? The introduction of a negative interest rate on a small portion of excess reserves has already reduced corporate bond yields, and we think that banks may also lower lending rates somewhat. However... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia’s growth picked up to 5.0% y/y in Q4, from 4.7% in Q3, but the expansion was still well below the 5.8% average recorded over the past decade. Looking ahead, looser monetary policy should... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA holds its nerve on global economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s February Statement on Monetary Policy confirms that the chances of a near-term reduction in interest rates remains slim. Nonetheless, there are a number of factors that... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s weaker than expected retail sales figures suggest that retailers had a disappointing Christmas period and that consumer spending has lost some momentum. As a result, we’ve revised down our... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will capital controls work? Many countries facing balance of payments strains have found that large outflows continue even after they tighten capital controls. China though stands a better chance of success. The capital account... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is US oil production falling? US oil production has been surprisingly resilient since oil prices collapsed in 2014 as companies have slashed costs and jobs and concentrated on only the most productive sweet spots. In this Energy... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Some respite for prices in late January The prices of industrial metals fell further in early January, unsettled by a renewed collapse in the crude oil price and by uncertainty surrounding exchange rate policy in China. However, sentiment... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Diverging fortunes kick start agriculturals in 2016 The S&P GSCI Agriculture index has started the new year where it left the last: down, falling by close to 1%. However, the beginning of 2016 has seen a divergence in the performance of the prices of... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We think Bund yields are likely to drift up, despite more ECB easing 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity gradually marching upwards With transactions rising further during the month, activity in the market does seem to be warming up. Coupled with record low interest rates and growing competition between banks, transactions should... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker growth looms in the Gulf A period of fiscal austerity means that we expect the Gulf economies to slow this year, a view that not too long ago was non-consensus but is now relatively mainstream . Both the consensus and the IMF... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB is losing the global currency race Having succeeded in bringing the euro down sharply last year, the European Central Bank (ECB) has recently fallen behind in the race amongst global policymakers to weaken their currencies in order to... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Dovish message from MPC, but 2016 rate hike still likely Today’s “Super Thursday” announcements were generally dovish but, true to form, Governor Carney gave mixed messages, striking a more hawkish tone at the press conference. While market expectations... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
