Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets tumble but PMIs relatively reassuring Equities and currencies have weakened across the emerging world today but the latest economic data, in the form of the manufacturing PMIs, point to a further slight improvement in December. A fall in... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Jump in wage growth not all due to base effects Our econometric model indicates a 210,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in December, which should be enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 4.9%. Base effects mean that even a modest 0.2%... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A mixed December closes a bleak year for commodities Broad commodity indices fell in December on the back of plummeting oil prices. But outside of energy, commodities withstood the first Fed rate hike in ten years better than many had anticipated... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The final Markit manufacturing PMIs for December, which were published today, suggest that momentum was slowing at the end of last year. The euro-zone gained a bit more momentum, but this was... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The rise in Brazil’s headline manufacturing PMI in December provides a rare piece of good news for a country in the grip of both a deep recession and an escalating political crisis. Elsewhere, Mexico... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Saudi-Iran tensions unlikely to provide lasting boost to oil prices The latest flare-up in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran is one of two main factors undermining global equities today, although we believe it has been much less important for financial markets... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.2 in December, from 48.6, leaves it at its lowest level since June 2009 and will add to concerns about a deterioration in global demand triggered by... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Does the latest slide in EM equities set the tone for 2016? 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) Household borrowing figures for November provided further evidence that households continue to drive the UK recovery. However, in combination with household data published in December’s Q3 National... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Flash CPI (Dec.) The 0.5% y/y fall in Polish consumer prices was larger than we had expected and, coming alongside the latest fall in oil prices, raises the risk that inflation will remain in negative territory in the... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) The latest fiscal data suggested that the peripheral countries continued to improve their budgetary positions at the back end of 2015. But there is a distinct risk of fiscal slippage in 2016... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Euro-zone Final Man. PMI (Dec.) December’s German CPI data confirm that the relative strength of the economy is exerting no upward pressure on inflation and support our view that the ECB will need to do more to hit its inflation... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will commodities be top of the flops again in 2016? 2015 was a year to forget for most investors. Commodities were routed ... again. Equities struggled, especially in emerging markets. And bonds generally failed to shine. There should be more to cheer... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad news from China kicks off an unhappy New Year Worries over China’s economy still look overdone to us, but today’s headlines are clearly unhelpful for sentiment towards industrial metals. More positively, the prices of crude oil and gold appear to... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase picked up in November. But the shortage of homes for sale is likely to act as a brake on transactions. Consequently, we think that mortgage lending will continue... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Dec.) & Money and Credit (Nov.) While December’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey offers a glimmer of hope that the sector’s recession has drawn to a close, the improvement in the fourth quarter as a whole looks like it is built on... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
