Our econometric model indicates a 210,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in December, which should be enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 4.9%. Base effects mean that even a modest 0.2% m/m increase in average hourly earnings will push the annual growth rate up to a five-year high of 2.8%.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.