Precious Metals Update Weak industrial demand continues to weigh on US silver trade US imports of semi-manufactured silver remained subdued in September, suggesting that industrial demand is yet to recover. In contrast, investors continued to buy into falling prices, boosting demand... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus PGM prices to benefit from tighter emission control standards We expect platinum group metals (PGMs) demand from the auto industry to pick up over the coming years on the back of more stringent emission control standards globally and growing car ownership rates... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing and credit bubbles: the next shoe to drop? Investors in Brazil are understandably focussed on the economic implications of the recent change in Finance Minister and the impeachment proceedings against President Rousseff. But we think the way... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Another strong month for China’s metals imports Continuing the resurgence that started in September, China’s metals imports remained strong in November. We think this reflects higher consumption, encouraged by the fiscal and monetary stimulus... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish election deals another blow to austerity The inconclusive result of the Spanish general election is set to trigger a period of political uncertainty which could slow the country’s economic recovery. But it also represents another blow to the... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices add to headwinds facing Russia’s economy The latest fall in oil prices has added to the uncertainty over the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Update we revisit the mechanisms through which lower oil prices affect Russia and outline what... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) An improvement in nominal GDP growth recently has prevented the ratio of private debt to output from rising, despite a rapid expansion in bank lending. This trend should continue for a while. 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Cheap oil hits home The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by the fall in oil prices well so far, but 2016 is likely to be the year in which low energy prices begin to weigh on growth. We don’t expect... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Too soon to sound the “all clear” on the Fed The muted responses in commodity markets to the first hike in US interest rates since 2006 were a tribute to the clear communications of the Fed (in contrast to those of OPEC!) and, in our view... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Volatile month for agriculturals Of the eleven agricultural commodities we cover, the prices of six have posted gains since mid-November. However, in a number of cases price movements over the last month have seen some sharp changes... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What explains regional differences in rental price growth? Residential rental value growth has accelerated over the course of the year. However, much of this has been driven by the southern regions of England, which in turn seems to fit well with the... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households unprepared for what comes next We fear that households are utterly unprepared for the normalisation of market interest rates that began with the US Fed’s historic lift-off last week. Canada’s economy has long been overly reliant on... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to expect in 2016 If 2015 was the year when interest rates didn’t rise as rapidly as most originally expected, then 2016 is likely to be the opposite, with a bigger than expected rebound in inflation forcing the Fed to... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Japanese equities to outperform again as yen falls further A combination of fading fears over China and additional yen weakness, as the Bank of Japan steps up the pace of its asset purchases, should allow Japanese equities to outperform their US peers in 2016... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
