DM Valuations Monitor Equities well placed to cope with further Fed tightening The US stock market has reacted positively to the first rate hike by the Fed, and we don’t expect it to be derailed by the onset of further tightening. Admittedly, at around 4%, the cyclically... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Low housing inventory drives market developments A lack of housing inventory continues to drive developments in the market. With homes hard to come by, sales have been constrained and house prices have come under upwards pressure as demand has... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady as Fed starts to tighten Emerging market (EM) growth remained fairly stable in October, as it has for much of the year. Looking ahead, we expect EM growth to pick up a touch in 2016, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What are the implications of US oil export restrictions being lifted? It now seems likely that the US will relax its restrictions on oil exports before the end of the year. However, the impact on prices should be negligible given the US’s continuing need to import oil... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Looking good ahead of Christmas The official measure of retail sales painted a rather more upbeat picture of high street spending in the early run-up to Christmas than the anecdotal evidence. The true picture probably lies somewhere... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone employment recovery masks national divergence Employment in the euro-zone is expanding at a healthy pace and survey data point to a positive outlook. But this hides a very mixed story amongst different countries, and the overall picture is... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A bad month for the ruble, other currencies fared well The Russian ruble was the worst performing EM currency over the past month, tumbling by 6% against the US dollar on the back of the latest decline in oil prices. But currencies elsewhere in the region... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the election threaten Spain’s recovery? The likely advent of a coalition government after this Sunday’s Spanish general election looks unlikely to bring the country’s robust economic recovery to a halt. But a period of political instability... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) The latest batch of Russian activity data, released today, show that the recovery slowed last month and, worryingly, this came before the latest fall in oil prices. In contrast to Russia, November’s... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates early next year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%, but dropped the clearest signal yet that an interest rate cut is not far away. We are maintaining our view that the central bank... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German industrial occupier demand set to moderate in 2016 After a record-breaking year in 2015, the latest data suggest that German industrial occupier demand will moderate next year. But, given supply constraints and occupier bases that are more aligned to... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh slump in oil prices weighs on Gulf equity markets Equity markets in the Gulf have fallen further over the past month, dragged down by the renewed slump in oil prices. Elsewhere, Egypt’s central bank has maintained a tight grip on the pound but... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will markets continue to react well to Fed rate hikes? The positive reaction of many riskier assets to Fed “lift-off” supports our view that they will perform well in 2016. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to keep feet firmly on the ground despite Fed “lift off” The US Fed’s decision to finally press ahead and raise interest rates yesterday begged the question ofwhether the MPC will quickly follow suit. However, in the near term, the only British mention of... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are commodity markets right to shrug off the Fed? The muted responses in commodity markets to the first hike in US interest rates since 2006 are atribute to the clear communications of the Fed and, in our view, largely justified. Looking forward... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
