UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (October/Q3) Today’s jobs numbers surprised on the upside, implying that after a summer lull occupier market conditions are improving once more. However, the sectoral breakdown suggests that job creation has been... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) & Final CPI (Nov.) October’s euro-zone goods trade data revealed a further slowdown in export growth, adding to the evidence that the boost from the weaker euro is fading. We suspect that the trade surplus will narrow... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour market data (Oct./Nov.) The latest labour market data showed a slowdown in wage growth, adding to evidence that there is no need for the MPC to follow the Fed in raising rates just yet. 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI left it still pointing to steady but modest growth in the region. But the Paris attacks have taken a toll on France, leaving the economy close to... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exemptions for food won’t dampen blow from sales tax hike The decision to exempt food from the sales tax hike due in 2017 will not make much difference to theblow it causes to economic momentum. It may however make an early election more likely. 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What is holding up the Goods and Services Tax? Passage of the long-awaited Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India continues to be delayed by major issues ranging from disagreements over the tax rate itself to which items will be covered. Given this... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s monetary policy to stay loose throughout 2016 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today ahead of the upcoming US rate decision and amid signs of a stabilising domestic economy. With price pressures... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit looks sustainable despite export weakness India’s trade deficit remained stable in November as the continued slump in exports was offset by another collapse in imports. With this trend set to continue, the overall current account position... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) While the headline manufacturing PMI was little changed in December, the moderation in the output component suggests that the recovery has lost some momentum. 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Not all doom & gloom for commodities Although the S&P GSCI Commodity Index has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis over the past month, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for commodity prices. Indeed, despite the slide... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected rise in Peruvian economic activity in October suggests the recovery is still struggling to gain momentum. Nonetheless, there are some encouraging signs that the economy will... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily First Fed hike shouldn’t be a game-changer (even for gold) 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why commodity markets (still) shouldn’t fear the Fed We have of course addressed the potential impact of higher US interest rates on global commodity markets before. But with the Fed almost certain to hike tomorrow for the first time since 2006, now is... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies shrug off looming Fed hike Currencies in Latin America appear to have shrugged off the prospect of a looming US interest rate hike, with most exchange rates broadly unchanged against the dollar month-to-date. The currencies of... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) The significant fall in manufacturing sales volumes in October, the third monthly decline in a row, provides more evidence that the economy has lost considerable momentum this quarter, possibly to the... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC signals unconventional easing The accompanying press release to today’s MPC decision in Hungary, at which the deposit rate was left unchanged at 1.35%, was dovish and suggested that unconventional measures to loosen policy will be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
