Commodities Weekly Near-term risks abound, but oil should recover in 2016 Brent crude's renewed slide below $40 per barrel was the damning verdict on OPEC's failure to agree on a number even for what is largely a notional output target. In principle, prices could keep... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Unconventional policy toolkit unlikely to be tested While we have long argued that the fallout from the oil shock would be disruptive and that hopes for an export revival were misplaced, we doubt that the Bank of Canada will need to resort to negative... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What to expect for oil prices in 2016 In this Energy Watch we briefly review oil prices in 2015, a year which many investors will probably be glad to see the back of. We then set out our central forecasts for 2016 and out to 2020. However... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Shrinking mine supply to bolster silver prices in 2016 After twelve years of increases, we expect mine supply to be broadly flat in 2015 and to decline by 3% in 2016 due to shrinking margins and production cuts across the industrial metals industry. While... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets to shrug off first Fed hike, but faster tightening to come A widely-anticipated Fed rate hike next week would probably not cause panic in financial markets. However, our view that the Fed will eventually raise rates faster than expected leads us to conclude... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp slowdown in Mexican industrial production growth in October, to 0.5% y/y, was disappointing, but we don’t think this is the start of a renewed downturn in the sector. The data from month to... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov.) The modest 0.2% m/m gain in headline sales in November was partly due to a price-related drop in gasoline station sales and a slight dip in the value of motor vehicle sales, which remain close to a... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium prices set for slow recovery in 2016 Having fallen sharply over the first eleven months of the year, the price of aluminium reached a six-year low in late November, although it has since recovered a little ground. In 2016, we expect... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand crisis brings prospect of higher inflation and rate hikes The surprise removal of South Africa’s respected finance minister has caused investors to reassess their views of South Africa’s struggling economy. Talk of an emergency rate hike is probably overdone... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hike in 2016 still likely despite slide in oil prices The unexpected slide in oil prices last week, to a six-year low of about $40pb, has left most forecasters once again pulling down their CPI inflation projections and has led some to speculate that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak German exports dent hopes for 2016 Contrary to hopes that a weaker euro and accommodative monetary policy would be particularly beneficial to Germany’s supposedly super-competitive export sector, the latest data have brought signs that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) India’s industrial sector performed well in October and favourable cyclical factors should help to sustain healthier growth in coming months. But structural headwinds are likely to hold back local... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank waits for inflation drop before easing The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Russia, at which the repo rate was left unchanged, was decidedly cautious and it’s clear that policymakers are waiting for firmer signs that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Inflation to pick up despite lower oil prices November’s consumer prices figures look likely to show that the UK’s brief period of negative inflation has now come to an end. What’s more, although oil prices have fallen further in December, we... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No need to panic about Fed lift-off For most of Emerging Asia an increase in US interest rates is not a major cause for concern. Only in Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore do we think Fed tightening could cause some problems. 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Longer-dated Bund yields to rise as ECB diversifies purchases After failing to live up to its own hype last week, we would not be surprised if the ECB is forced to increase its monthly asset purchases after all next year. But even if it does, we think that the... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
