UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The official UK retail sales figures painted a far more upbeat picture of high streetspending in the early run-up to Christmas than the anecdotal and survey evidence. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small fall in the headline German Ifo index left it still at a high level. But the sharper decline in the current conditions component supported evidence from recent hard data that growth... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets take Fed tightening in their stride Financial markets in India have taken yesterday's decision by the US Fed to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade in their stride. A bigger test might come if the Fed now tightens... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Revival won't last long The recent resurgence in activity in both Australia and New Zealand is not the start of a sustained period of strong GDP growth. While the near-term outlook has improved, GDP growth in both economies... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Nov.) While net trade probably provided another boost to GDP growth this quarter, a slowdown in export volumes lies ahead. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The impressive rebound in GDP growth in the third quarter does not mean that New Zealand is out of the woods. With the full hit from the plunge in dairy prices still to be felt, growth will be weaker... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals rate cuts next year The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rebounded last week as net imports jumped again, production rose and inputs to refineries fell. The picture was no better in products, with demand for gasoline and distillates... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) Flash manufacturing PMIs for December show continued steady growth in the eurozone and Japan, but they also underline how much the US manufacturing sector is struggling. That said, we doubt that this... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) As expected, housing starts reversed nearly all of last month’s drop, rising by a substantial 10.5% m/m in November. Moreover, building permits recorded their strongest month-on-month gain for five... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will buy-to-let trigger the next house price crash? Fears that BTL investors will trigger another housing market downturn by selling up en-masse if house prices begin to falter, are at odds with the evidence from the last downturn. Contrary to... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to recover a little further in 2016 After rising above 15 cents per pound in early December, the price of sugar has slipped back to 14.5 cents more recently. We expect prices to increase slowly through 2016 as a result of lower... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The bigger than expected 0.6% m/m decline in industrial production in November was largely due to a weather-related 4.3% m/m drop in utilities output. Manufacturing output was unchanged last month... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC stays dovish, but doesn’t extend koruna cap pledge The Czech National Bank’s MPC once again struck a dovish note in the post-meeting statement and, although the Council didn’t extend its commitment to the koruna cap beyond next year (as we thought... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone nose-dive? There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
