US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) November’s slump in existing home sales was widespread, suggesting that new regulation, or perhaps concern about December’s rate rise, may have played a role. Either way, with housing fundamentals... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will consumers continue driving the recovery in 2016? Household consumption in advanced economies has risen more rapidly in 2015 than in any other year since the global financial crisis. We expect it to continue expanding steadily for the next year or... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges higher Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a small uptick in growth in November. With the leadership pledging additional policy support, a more robust turnaround seems likely soon. 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Precious metals supply to tighten as currency boost fades Falls in currencies of major producers have played a key role in cushioning mining companies’ margins in recent years. However, with the prices of most precious metals trading below production costs... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt edging closer to pound devaluation The Egyptian central bank has found itself in the spotlight this month, as attention has (re-)focussed on the country’s fragile external position. The appointment of Tarek Amer as governor had already... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank holds fire, plays a dangerous game The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold, when hikes had been widely anticipated, will probably result in renewed concerns that the MPC’s decisions are being swayed by... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Spanish government bonds to weather political uncertainty The better-than-expected showing from Podemos in Sunday’s general election looks likely to usher in a period of political uncertainty in Spain, which could lead to an anti-austerity government in the... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa suffers as SSA closes very weak year The South African currency and local equities plunged in December when a botched cabinet reshuffle by President Jacob Zuma caused investors to question the country’s governance. The self-induced... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) There was no festive cheer for the Chancellor in November’s public finances figures. Indeed, it now looks almost impossible for Mr. Osborne to meet the OBR’s public borrowing forecast for the fiscal... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The latest consumer confidence figures support our expectation that Q4 will have been another strong quarter for the consumer. But we anticipate that spending growth will wane a little next year as... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rebound won’t be sustained Australia and New Zealand both staged impressive rebounds in the third quarter, with GDP rising by 0.9% q/q in each economy on the back of a large boost from net exports. However, neither economy will... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Dec.) The fall in small business confidence in December partly reflects seasonal patterns. Nonetheless, it confirms earlier signs from the manufacturing PMI that economic momentum has slowed somewhat... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to rebound Inflation is currently being held down by the impact of falling commodity prices and the stronger dollar but, as those deflationary forces fade next year, we expect rising domestic price pressures to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Dec.) December’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey signals a fairly strong end to a strong quarter for retail sales growth. It also supports the view that last month’s weak survey reading was a blip, and not... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Aluminium prices to rise due to stronger automotive demand Governments are progressively tightening emissions and fuel economy standards for vehicles, a process that will only intensify following the deal on climate change reached at the recent Paris... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak producer currencies to keep prices under pressure Currency fluctuations have been a key factor dragging agricultural prices lower in US dollar terms this year. Dollar strength and weakness in key producer currencies are likely to remain headwinds in... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
