Europe Economics Update Faster German wage growth is nothing to fear The recent pick-up in German wage growth is encouraging and we think that fears of a sharp rise in inflation and loss of competitiveness are unwarranted. Our one misgiving is that the ECB might... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Spending (Nov.) The monthly data on consumption and investment released this morning do little to change our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be around 2.0% annualised. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Yield impact fading but rents and rates remain supportive The upswing in the rental recovery seems to be close to its peak. This, however, does not imply that rents are set to correct as the positive economic outlook should continue to underpin rental growth... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) After contracting by 0.5% m/m in September, the economy began the fourth-quarter poorly, with GDP unchanged in October. While non-conventional oil production rose modestly, declines elsewhere indicate... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What do the latest office jobs data say about rental prospects in 2016? The latest employment data show that office employment is far outpacing total jobs growth in most euro-zone economies. And, even in economies such as Germany and France, where office jobs growth has... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A quiet end to the year Asian financial markets have taken the start of Fed tightening in their stride. Currencies, equities and government bond yields have all been fairly stable over the past month. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers are still the backbone of the economic recovery The latest Quarterly National Accounts showed that the overall economic recovery was slower than previously thought in Q3, but that household spending remains robust. What’s more, looking ahead, the... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) The Quarterly National Accounts suggest that the economic recovery has less momentum than previously thought and still looks worryingly unbalanced. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling US production to support oil prices in 2016 The current weakness in crude oil prices partly reflects still-high production and stocks in the US, despite the collapse in the number of active drilling rigs there. But we expect the supply response... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: 2016 budget looks too ambitious Nigeria’s 2016 budget, presented to parliament yesterday, relies on overly optimistic economic assumptions, although at least the focus on raising capital spending marks a welcome change. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s government really spending more than ever? At first sight, Japan’s budget plans suggest that the government is planning to loosen the purse strings next year. In fact, fiscal policy will probably be tightened again. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda fails to launch in 2015 On the face of it, 2015 has been a decent year for the Indian economy. Admittedly, activity indicators are pointing to a slow and bumpy recovery, but conditions have undoubtedly improved following... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External vulnerabilities remain low The widening in India’s current account deficit in Q3 was due in large part to seasonal patterns. Over a four-quarter sum, the deficit narrowed and, given also that FDI inflows remain strong, there is... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack ASEAN Economic Community is no game changer The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) formally takes effect on 31st December and aims to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base, which its supporters hope will one day enable it to... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Argentina goes orthodox The inauguration of President Mauricio Macri has brought about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Argentina. Over a decade of populist and interventionist macroeconomic policy has... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 15) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 4.6% in November, but M2 growth was still a very healthy 6.2% and, most importantly, the growth rate of bank loans is running at 8.0%. 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
