Capital Daily Investors still banking on an unlikely revival in China’s economy 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb.) Easing housing demand helped annual house price growth drop to a 6½-year low in February. We expect that slowdown will continue but, with inventory levels close to record lows and mortgage interest... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) Preliminary data showing a surprise 0.2% q/q contraction in Mexican GDP in Q1 made for ugly reading, and the risks to our above-consensus growth forecast for this year now lie firmly to the downside... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m decline in monthly real GDP in February was principally due to the unseasonably severe weather this winter and the associated disruption to rail transportation, which had a knock-on... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Why does Indonesia want to move its capital city? There are good reasons why Indonesia wants to move its capital city away from Jakarta, but any move faces significant obstacles. The main reason for wanting to move is that Jakarta is sinking... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Brexit delay contributes to looser financial conditions The marginal loosening in overall financial conditions since the second delay to Brexit until 31st October and the recent reduction in fears about the outlook for the global economy suggest that the... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs point to subdued commodities demand The April survey data suggest China’s economy has entered a softer patch and underpin our view that most industrial and oil prices will ease back in the coming months. 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: More bad news across the region Figures released this month added to the evidence that African economies are struggling this year. The worst news was from South Africa and Angola, where recent activity data suggest that GDP actually... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the latest EM currency “sell-off” The recent sell-off in EM currencies has grabbed the headlines but in truth, aside from the Argentine peso and Turkish lira, the moves have been relatively limited. This Update highlights three key... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Outlook Risk appetite to be the key driver of prices Our forecast that global economic growth will stay lower for longer suggests that the recent revival in industrial metals prices will prove short-lived. However, the prices of gold and silver could... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) The first estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 and the labour market data for March were encouraging. But the timelier survey indicators have continued to weaken, and we expect the global economy to remain... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Taiwan held up surprisingly well last quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. The breakdown of the figures show that domestic demand weakened further last quarter and that... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Apr.) The rise in Polish inflation to an 18-month high of 2.2% y/y in April was driven almost entirely by a pickup in food and fuel inflation. It appears that core inflation remained weak (at 1.5% y/y)... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Given the current political impasse, it is reassuring that the GfK/NOP consumer confidence figure held steady again in April. And with the six-month delay to Brexit removing the chance of an imminent... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Supermarkets to outperform the wider retail sector There are no signs that supermarket rental value falls will reverse. But supermarket capital value growth is likely to outpace the wider retail sector in coming years as valuations appear less... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
