Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech tightening cycle comes to an end The interest rate hike at today’s monetary policy meeting probably marks the end of the Czech National Bank’s tightening cycle. While we think that the currency will fail to appreciate by as much as... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation to fall despite higher oil prices Data due to be released tomorrow are set to show a jump in inflation in April. But given that this rise will largely be the result of Easter timing effects, it is unlikely to be sustained. And while... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Tougher FHA standards to drag on housing demand The introduction of tougher lending standards for mortgages insured by the FHA will provide another headwind to housing demand this year. While the removal of similar standards in 2016 did not have a... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update GDP growth still set to slow Neither the unexpectedly strong 3.2% gain in first-quarter GDP nor the outsized 0.7% m/m increase in real consumption in March changes our view that the US economy will experience a marked slowdown in... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update General hawkish message from the MPC Even after the announcement of the six-month Brexit delay, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from its current rate of 0.75% with the possibility of a no deal Brexit... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rental growth lead to diminish in 2020-21 Western European office rents grew by 5.3% p.a. in 2016-18. We expect them to grow by little more than that over the next three years combined, as occupier demand slows and development completions... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equity rally to fade, mixed news for Morocco Saudi equities have continued to rally this week, but we think that they will erase all of their recent gains by the end of this year. Meanwhile, projections from Morocco’s agriculture ministry... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to rebound in Q2, before dropping back An unwinding of the temporary factors that weighed on activity in January and February means that GDP growth will rebound from 1% annualised in the first quarter to about 2.2% in the second. That... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why are the surveys weaker than the “hard” data? The “hard” data compiled by statistical agencies and policymakers have generally been rather better in advanced economies in the past month or so than the weaker surveys of economic activity. While... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) Workloads deteriorated further in Q1, although some improvement is expected. But with labour and finance constraining activity, commercial property supply is unlikely to increase substantially. 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 in April, providing a rare reason for optimism about the sector. This supports our view that economic conditions will strengthen in Q2. 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) April’s PMI data point to a sharp slowdown in industrial output in Central Europe in the coming months. The weakness in the euro-zone looks set to take a heavier toll on Czech industrial output... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics for April make for grim reading and suggest that economic conditions have stayed weak at the start of the second quarter. This supports our... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in refining activity and a further increase in net imports saw a third consecutive weekly build in crude stocks, which are now at the highest since September 2017. An unexpected drawdown in the... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What explains the plunge in core inflation? In contrast to the sudden weakness in core inflation a few years ago, the latest plunge in core PCE inflation cannot be explained by idiosyncratic factors. Instead, it reflects a moderation in unit... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a 2½-year low in April illustrates that, after the contraction in manufacturing output in the first quarter, US factory conditions have deteriorated further... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
