UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Apr.) With Brexit having been delayed until 31st October, the slightly more upbeat tone of April’s IHS Markit/CIPS services survey was not too surprising. However, the PMI remained at a low level and we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Risks in the Philippines, Indonesia Activity Tracker The decision by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s to upgrade its long-term credit rating for the Philippines to BBB+ risks underplaying the country’s worsening external position as well as its... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation data for April will come as some relief to the central bank. But with a number of downside risks facing the lira, policymaker’s recent dovish shift feels... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Apr.) This morning’s release of inflation data from Switzerland for April yielded no surprises and showed that price pressures remain almost completely absent. We expect the headline rate to fall close to... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Record GST revenues, weaker rupee The surge in GST revenues over recent months won’t be enough to solve the government’s fiscal woes in the near term. However, it does suggest that compliance with the new tax system is improving, and... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Imperial succession & trade talks The reduction in the number of working days will reduce the annual growth rate of industrial production and exports but it will have no impact on the more closely-watched monthly changes. Nor will it... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A US-China trade deal could lift commodity prices The prices of oil and iron ore made further gains in April owing to continued supply-side concerns, but the prices of most other commodities fell. Indeed, we also expect iron ore and oil prices to... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in productivity growth a key upside risk The acceleration in productivity growth suggests the economy’s supply side is responding to the tightness of labour markets and the tax cuts introduced early last year. With investment growth slowing... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global industry still struggling While composite PMIs have been overstating the weakness of overall economic activity in recent months, manufacturing PMIs have generally maintained a better relationship with the “hard” industrial... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Burden of negative rates won’t prevent further easing Negative interest rates in Denmark, Switzerland, and Sweden impose costs on their respective banking sectors, but the overall burdens are very small – well below 0.1% of bank assets in all cases... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget position likely to deteriorate Saudi Arabia recorded a budget surplus in Q1 but, if oil prices drop back as we expect, the fiscal position is likely to deteriorate. This won’t cause significant balance sheet strains, although... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI falls back as BRICs falter The drop in the headline EM manufacturing PMI in April was driven by weaker surveys out of all four BRIC economies. The breakdown of Markit’s aggregate EM survey showed that the rebound in EM exports... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q1 2019 World Gold Council Demand Trends While flattered by base effects, a surge in central bank buying and strong inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) meant that gold demand grew by a healthy 7% y/y in Q1. While central banks should... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Powell’s inflation talk doesn’t alter our bullish view of Treasuries 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament elections A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech tightening cycle comes to an end The interest rate hike at today’s monetary policy meeting probably marks the end of the Czech National Bank’s tightening cycle. While we think that the currency will fail to appreciate by as much as... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
