China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Both official measures of inflation picked up last month but this was mostly due to supply-side factors and therefore shouldn’t be interpreted as clear evidence of stronger domestic demand. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.5%* and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack China weakness to weigh on prices regardless of trade The prices of most industrial metals fell over the past month, and were hit particularly hard in recent days by downbeat Chinese manufacturing surveys, and US-China trade talks taking a turn for the... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After US crude stocks reached their highest since September 2017, the beginning of May saw a partial reversal in recent builds. The latest stock draw was fuelled by a fall in net imports and an... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2019) Our Tracker suggests that EMs received positive (albeit small) net capital inflows in April. But fresh currency stress in Argentina and Turkey as well as concerns about renewed trade tensions suggest... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia’s economy one year after election One year on from Mahathir’s shock re-election, the Malaysian prime minister has made some useful progress in tackling corruption, but his decision to eliminate the Goods and Service Tax (GST) and... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What Q1 will give, Q2 may take away While the release of the GDP data for Q1 this Friday will probably show that the economy grew at a healthy clip, we doubt that Q2 will be as good. 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of a collapse in US/China trade talks We think that the direct effects of President Trump’s threatened tariff hikes could reduce Chinese GDP by up to 0.4% and that the associated retaliation would have only a marginal direct impact on the... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports flattered by stockbuilding Aside from oil, China’s commodity imports have generally been soft since the start of this year and there are now signs that export volumes are starting to come off the boil. Imports may pick up later... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus SNB to cut interest rates further into negative territory If the ECB re-starts QE next year, as we think is likely, the resulting upward pressure on the Swiss franc would stoke deflationary fears at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and prompt a policy response... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to leave rates on hold this year Despite the downbeat outlook for Thailand’s economy, the central bank (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today. Continued concerns over risks in the financial sector mean that it is... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) The sharp rise in Halifax house price growth stands in contrast to the other housing market data and should be interpreted with care. Indeed, our outlook for house price growth is much weaker, with... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) The increase in industrial production in March is not as a good as it looks at first sight, not least because it was largely due to another increase in construction activity. Moreover, the business... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank going it alone, SNB and Riksbank on hold We expect policymakers in Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Sweden to all leave interest rates unchanged at their next policy meetings over the coming weeks and months. In the case of the Norges Bank... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will cut again before the year is out Subdued economic growth and a softening labour market mean that today’s interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be repeated before the year is out. 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
