Canada Economics Weekly Data point to stronger GDP growth in Q2 The data this week confirmed that the economy is on track for a stronger second quarter than the Bank of Canada is expecting. While exports performed well in March, growing trade tensions with China... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico CPI boosted by Easter, dovish Andean CBs Data released this week confirming a further rise in Mexican inflation last month were eye-catching, but it looks like Easter effects were partly to blame. Elsewhere, dovish statements accompanying... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade dispute with China not a major threat to outlook President Donald Trump’s surprise move this week to impose higher tariffs on $200bn of Chinese imports could mark the start of a significant escalation in the trade dispute. Nevertheless, it might... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Higher yields in prospect across all sectors With Brexit delayed, occupier demand is likely to be soft this year and interest rates lower for longer. However, our working assumption is that a deal will be struck this year. In turn, we expect the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Post-tariff bounce in China’s stock markets unlikely to last 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports to stay weak, regardless of trade war The rise in the US tariff rate on $200bn of imports from China that came into force today is only likely to have a small impact on China’s economy, let alone the rest of the emerging world. But... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German green shoots and Greek fiscal concerns This week saw further signs that the German economy regained some momentum at the end of Q1, as industrial production rose and exports picked up in March. But with the business surveys for March and... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown, Turkey’s bumpy recovery The raft of Q1 GDP data due next week are likely to show that aggregate growth in Emerging Europe slowed to its weakest pace in over two years. Much of this reflects weakness in Russia; growth in... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April’s 107,000 rise in employment blew the consensus out of the water and will encourage policymakers. But the increase was less impressive than it first seemed, with over half of the gain coming... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank takes a pause, SNB to cut further The Norges Bank held interest rates on hold at 1.00% at its meeting on Thursday but signalled that it will “most likely” resume its tightening cycle at the next meeting, in June. Meanwhile, the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher tariffs do not change our already bearish view A total breakdown in US-China trade talks would undoubtedly be a further negative for the prices of most industrial metals. However, regardless of the latest tariff increase, we had already expected a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The much larger-than-expected contraction in Mexican industrial production in March, of 1.3% m/m, will diminish hopes of an upwards revision to the dire provisional Q1 GDP figure. With the economy... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The subdued 0.1% m/m gain in core consumer prices last month was in part driven by falls in clothing and used car prices, which may be reversed in the coming months. But the bigger story has been the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack No rebound after Brexit delay Housing market conditions were weak in April, as the delay to Brexit did little to rebuild confidence in among buyers and sellers. Looking ahead, we expect uncertainty and high house prices to further... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Sliding towards a debt crisis Zambia’s public debt position has long been untenable, but the situation is now escalating. The country faces the choice between fiscal tightening (possibly as part of an IMF debt deal) or a more... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Grey clouds on the horizon for the labour market Preparations for the moving target of Brexit day flattered the Q1 GDP figures and therefore could give way to a hangover in Q2. But this should just be a timing effect. How the labour market performs... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
