Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) The euro-zone industrial production data for March show that while output in the sector expanded in Q1, this was not enough to offset Q4’s contraction. And with global economic growth set to remain... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oversupply plagues the wheat market Persistently high production and stocks have led us to revise down our price forecast for wheat. Indeed, in its first estimate of the 2019/20 season, the USDA expects the market to be in a large... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) Despite the unemployment rate edging down to a fresh 45-year low, March’s figures painted a picture of a softening labour market. That is in line with our forecast for employment growth to ease this... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Alternatives to prop up overall investment activity The recent strength of alternative investment does not appear to reflect a broadening in the investor base, but with interest rates unlikely to rise until next year, we think that a continuation of... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The small pick-up in Swedish inflation in April was caused by the later timing of Easter this year. Amid signs that economic growth has slowed sharply in the first half of 2019, we expect headline... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Mar.) The much better-than-expected 2.1% rise in Turkish industrial production in March adds to signs that the economy grew in Q1, by around 0.5-0.8% q/q. But the recent tightening of financial conditions... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The drop in wholesale price inflation in April will increase the clamour for another rate cut in June. But we think that underlying inflation will soon rise again, which underlines the risks... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How will policymakers respond to the next downturn? If the next downturn is a mild, cyclical one we would expect the Bank of Japan to cut its short-term policy rate but leave its 10-year yield target unchanged. Fiscal stimulus would probably have to do... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Databank This Databank provides our forecasts out to 2038 for twenty major global economies, covering key macroeconomic and financial market variables. Click on the Excel spreadsheet link below to download the... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising trade tensions and what they mean for EMs The latest increase in trade tensions between the US and China so far appears to have had a larger impact on EM currency markets than previous flare-ups in the trade war. But the impact of the latest... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Renewed curve inversion suggests slide in S&P 500 is not over 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How big a threat are US tariffs to the EU? The US is stepping up the pressure on China to agree a trade deal, and a deadline to decide whether to raise tariffs on all auto imports is looming. On their own, those tariffs would do little damage... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further interest rate cuts in India look only a matter of time after headline inflation in April came in at a below-target 2.9% y/y. However, we continue to think that further monetary loosening is a... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The impact of the trade war on the rest of Asia The trade war between the US and China has so far had a very small impact on the rest of Asia, which has been dwarfed by the much bigger impact of the slowdown in global growth and the downturn in the... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q1) The slowdown in mainland Norway GDP growth in Q1, from an upwardly-revised 1.1% q/q in Q4 to 0.3% in Q1, was sharper than we had expected. However, the result was driven in part by a weather-related... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Tariffs are not good news for commodity prices President Trump’s decision to ratchet up the pressure on China by raising trade tariffs weighed heavily on most commodity prices this week. However, market sentiment improved a little on Friday as it... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
