Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SEK sell-off and bond market rally have further to run The recent sell-off in the Swedish krona to decade lows against the euro has been driven by a combination of a flare-up in global trade tensions and a dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance. We... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigerian GDP growth slowed to 2.0% y/y in Q1, strengthening our view that the economy will perform worse than most expect over the course of 2019. We think that today’s weak result will encourage... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Dire Brazil data, tensions brewing in Argentina Data released this week all-but-confirm that Brazilian GDP contracted in Q1 and it looks touch and go as to whether the economy entered a technical recession in Q2. Another fall in output this quarter... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics will be a factor in OPEC’s output policy Softer April activity and spending data out of China and negative sentiment surrounding the impasse in US-China trade talks weighed on the prices of many metals this week. We had always suspected that... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shows signs of life The housing market showed some promising signs of life in April, with home sales rising strongly. House price inflation slowed, however, and is likely to remain very low. 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor Our in-house proxies of growth in China’s demand for industrial metals have generally risen in the first third of 2019, fuelled by a surge in construction. Despite government stimulus this year, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Aussie dollar may fall further, particularly against the yen 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariffs alone won’t change the Fed’s plans President Donald Trump clearly isn’t the only one hoping that the Fed will ride to the rescue amid the escalating trade dispute with China, with the markets now convinced that interest rates will be... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bunds rally amid trade tensions and Italian fiscal risks Developments this week suggest that Italy’s government is on another collision course with the European Commission. Meanwhile, the risk of US car tariffs has eased, but it has not disappeared. Finally... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2019) The much weaker-than-anticipated Russian Q1 GDP growth figure of 0.5% y/y is consistent with a q/q contraction in output. We think that this probably marks the trough and growth should pick up over... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update After a stable 2018, Berlin office yields can fall again Prime office yields in Berlin have been stable over the past 18 months, in spite of strong rental growth expectations. With tighter monetary policy now some way off, and yields on assets with a... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit sabbatical drawing to a close If you have been enjoying the respite from incessant Brexit headlines over the past few weeks, I’m afraid it’s bad news. This week’s fall in the pound to a three-month low of $1.28 reflects Brexit... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed again in the first quarter of the year, and the economy is now expanding at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. With exports likely to remain in the... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian economy takes a breather We suspect that the weather-related weak patch in Norwegian activity in Q1 will prove temporary. Meanwhile, following the recent flare-up in trade tensions and the Swedish Riksbank’s dovish shift, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
