Asia Economics Weekly Won weakness, election season over The 6% decline in the Korean won since the start of the year does not pose a major threat to the economy. However, policymakers are clearly irked by the decline in the currency, with officials from... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail yields at an inflection point A further slowdown in the rate of yield compression suggests that investors are increasingly nervous about pricing at this late stage of the cycle. We expect this to continue, especially given the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Subdued rental growth sets tone for a weaker year Occupier demand is strong in all three sectors, with solid economic growth supporting expansion, although we expect this to slow through the course of the year, dampening rental growth in all sectors... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Interest rate reforms unlikely to deliver hoped-for gains While the trade war has dominated the headlines, the People’s Bank has been getting on with the unglamorous work of financial reform. It is moving closer to phasing out benchmark lending rates. That... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM sovereign dollar bonds not all in the same boat We think that EM sovereign dollar bonds will generally fare badly in 2019. But their correlations with US equities and Treasuries suggest that they will hold up better in parts of Asia and Latin... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc set to keep on rising The Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, and we think that this trend will continue over the rest of the year. By contrast, despite the Swedish central bank’s concerns about the krona’s... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Away from this morning’s political developments, April’s retail sales figures were better than most had feared. Nonetheless, the figures still suggest that GDP growth will be weaker in Q2 than in Q1. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Relentless outperformance of US equities likely to end The far superior performance of equities in the US than in the rest of the developed world since the global financial crisis (GFC) can be mostly attributed to healthier growth in corporate earnings... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Retail returns worsen UK commercial property sector returns continued to soften in April, with the delay to Brexit prolonging investor uncertainty and property yields increasing further, particularly in the retail sector. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Prime Minister Theresa May resigns The resignation of Prime Minister, Theresa May, supports our recent view that the chances of a Brexit deal have fallen and that the chances of another delay and a no deal Brexit have risen. While the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for housing market has brightened Proposed changes by Australia’s bank regulator will increase the maximum loan size for some borrowers. While that is unlikely to bolster housing demand much at this stage, as the RBA lowers interest... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The surge in April’s headline inflation was accompanied by an acceleration in underlying inflation, which rose to its highest in almost three years. However, we suspect that underlying inflation will... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Employment gains set to slow The one bright spot over the past six months has been the strength of the labour market. The Labour Force Survey revealed a record-breaking 107,000 jump in employment in April. Even the more reliable... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors increasingly negative on commodities Investor positioning in the futures markets for both metals and agriculturals has taken a downward turn recently. While the picture is not uniform across commodities, we think that investor selling... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Higher loadings won’t stop palladium prices falling We have revised up our estimates of palladium demand, despite weak car sales, due to higher loadings in China and Europe. We still expect the price of palladium to fall back from $1,310 per ounce... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Divergence in E-Z peripheral bonds likely to continue The yield of 10-year government bonds in Italy has moved in the opposite direction to the yields of 10-year government bonds in Spain and Portugal recently. While we don’t expect that to continue, we... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
