UK Economics Chart Pack Households to rein in spending in Q2 Some of the surge in consumer spending growth from 0.3% q/q in Q4 to 0.7% q/q in Q1 might have been due to households bringing forward purchases ahead of the original 29th March Brexit deadline. If so... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (May) The small increase in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is a welcome bit of good news. But it is not enough to fully reverse its fall in April, and does not change our view that... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Apr.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase saw a surprisingly large rise in April, but we doubt that signals the start of a sustained rebound in lending. Indeed, with all other signs consistent with... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) and Swedish ETI (May) Swiss Q1 GDP data released this morning offer some comfort that the Swiss economy has put the weak patch in H2 2018 behind it. But indicators suggest that growth is likely to slow over the rest of... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates may fall to 0.75% The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has telegraphed that it will cut interest rates to 1.25% in June and we think it will follow up with another 25bp cut in August. But we suspect that further easing... 28th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eight quick points about the European elections Projections of the results of the European elections confirm that pro-European parties will continue to have a clear majority in the European Parliament (EP) itself, so little will change at EU level... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Tentative signs of stabilisation in world trade World trade volumes contracted again in Q1. But just as trade tensions between the US and China are ratcheting up again, there are a few signs that the slowdown in world trade may be bottoming out. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Demand concerns spreading to oil Weak flash PMIs in major advanced economies, especially in the US, have led to increased worries about the demand for industrial commodities. As a result, the recent softness in industrial metal... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to remain cautious The slump in the US activity surveys in May and the big drop in oil prices this week add to the reasons to expect the Bank of Canada to maintain a cautious tone at its meeting next week. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slows to three-year low Aggregate EM economic growth slowed to its weakest pace since the first half of 2016 in the first quarter of this year. Much of the weakness was concentrated in commodity-exporting EMs. The early... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fernández-Fernández, Brazil reform, GDP drop Investors have largely welcomed the decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president (rather than the top job) in Argentina’s election in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Safe-haven flows, more than politics, likely to weigh on the euro 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data leave Trump with weaker hand in trade talks The strength of the US economy in the first quarter was presumably one of the factors that emboldened President Donald Trump to take a tougher line with China in the trade dispute. But the incoming... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Rate cuts just around the corner in SA and Nigeria Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria left policy settings unchanged at their meetings this week but the accompanying communications supported our long-held view that interest rates will be cut... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revising down our Mexico growth forecast The carryover from the weak Q1 Mexican GDP growth figure has prompted us to revise down our growth forecast for this year to 1.8% (our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 1.5%). Slow growth increases the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK Prime Minister Theresa May resigns The resignation of the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, supports our recent view that the chances of a Brexitdeal have fallen and that the chances of another delay and a no deal Brexit have risen... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
