Commodities Weekly Demand concerns spreading to oil Weak flash PMIs in major advanced economies, especially in the US, have led to increased worries about the demand for industrial commodities. As a result, the recent softness in industrial metal... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to remain cautious The slump in the US activity surveys in May and the big drop in oil prices this week add to the reasons to expect the Bank of Canada to maintain a cautious tone at its meeting next week. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slows to three-year low Aggregate EM economic growth slowed to its weakest pace since the first half of 2016 in the first quarter of this year. Much of the weakness was concentrated in commodity-exporting EMs. The early... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fernández-Fernández, Brazil reform, GDP drop Investors have largely welcomed the decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president (rather than the top job) in Argentina’s election in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Safe-haven flows, more than politics, likely to weigh on the euro 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data leave Trump with weaker hand in trade talks The strength of the US economy in the first quarter was presumably one of the factors that emboldened President Donald Trump to take a tougher line with China in the trade dispute. But the incoming... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Rate cuts just around the corner in SA and Nigeria Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria left policy settings unchanged at their meetings this week but the accompanying communications supported our long-held view that interest rates will be cut... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revising down our Mexico growth forecast The carryover from the weak Q1 Mexican GDP growth figure has prompted us to revise down our growth forecast for this year to 1.8% (our 2020 forecast is unchanged at 1.5%). Slow growth increases the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK Prime Minister Theresa May resigns The resignation of the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, supports our recent view that the chances of a Brexitdeal have fallen and that the chances of another delay and a no deal Brexit have risen... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth picked up at the start of Q2 as strong industrialoutput offset continued weakness in the retail and construction sectors. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The weakness of the April durable goods data, which showed underlying orders unchanged following a downwardly-revised plunge in March, provides further evidence that economic growth is slowing sharply... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EU elections, more weak surveys This week saw the release of another set of underwhelming business surveys, suggesting that the pick-up in GDP growth in Q1 will not be sustained, and some further evidence that price pressures remain... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Prime Minister May falls, CPI inflation rises The announcement by the Prime Minister that she will resign appears to have generated even more political uncertainty for the Bank of England to deal with. The Bank will be thankful, then, that... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May) The softer-than-expected mid-month inflation Brazilian figure for May, of 4.9% y/y, suggests that the headline rate has now peaked, and we think it will fall back below the central bank’s target in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey capital controls, Russia’s looming rate cut Steps taken this week by Turkish officials to shore up the lira could be the first move towards the imposition of capital controls, but if anything these are likely to store up larger falls in the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Prop from construction prevents further slowdown Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, while a further acceleration in construction activity prevented growth from edging down in April, momentum in the rest of the economy softened last month. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
