India Data Response GDP (Q1) The sharp drop in GDP growth in Q1 looks all the more perplexing given that various other indicators suggest a much milder slowdown last quarter. Nevertheless, the data will seal the deal on another... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungarian stimulus, Ukraine & IMF, Turkey’s double-dip The fiscal stimulus package unveiled in Hungary this week adds to reasons to think that the economy will grow more quickly than most anticipate over the course of this year. Meanwhile, positive... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading to Vilnius, inflation to drop back This week saw a fresh escalation of the tensions between Italy and the European Commission, and the publication of some fairly downbeat survey data. Combined with the very low inflation data we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Brent-WTI spread to narrow in 2019 The relative scarcity of Brent crude and an abundance of WTI have led to a persistently wide price spread between the two oils. However, we expect enhanced pipeline capacity in the US and somewhat... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe driven by domestic demand The full breakdown of Q1 GDP data for the economies of Central Europe confirmed that domestic demand remains the main driver of growth, although there was a surprisingly large boost from net trade in... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of Trump’s tariffs There’s plenty of uncertainty about whether the tariffs on all US imports from Mexico announced last night by President Trump will be introduced and rise to the full 25%. The impact of the starting... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No change in households’ appetite to spend Reassuringly, following the raft of weak survey data released this week, consumer credit growth held up well in April. And with the labour market healthy and interest rates only likely to rise... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy may soon be considered riskier than Greece The spread between the yields of 10-year government bonds in Greece and Italy has fallen sharply following the latest European Parliament elections. We now forecast that it will turn negative... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New Finance Minister faces delicate balancing act Nirmala Sitharaman, who has just been selected to replace Arun Jaitley as Finance Minister, faces a delicate balancing act in her new role. On the one hand, she will want to display fiscal rectitude... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.) April’s strong rise in house purchase mortgage approvals more than reversed March’s fall. But we doubt that signals the start of a sustained recovery in lending. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) April saw a sharp reversal of the large increase in net lending in March. With uncertainty prolonged and yields starting to rise, we think that net lending will be subdued this year. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy struggles to maintain its pace, race for No. 10 The economic news for Q2 so far has been pretty poor. And we wouldn’t be too surprised if Q1’s expansion is the fastest rate of growth that the economy can muster for some time. Meanwhile, the ever... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) Consumers appeared unfazed by the political chaos, with the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence rising to a fresh eight-month high in May. But with the economic fundamentals of consumer spending... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May) Uncertainty and the already high level of prices kept house price inflation subdued in May. Looking ahead, we expect these factors to keep price growth weak to the end of 2019 – at just 1% y/y. 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) Turkey’s economy returned to growth in Q1 but the tightening of financial conditions over the past couple of months has probably resulted in a renewed downturn. This reinforces our view that the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market (Apr.) & Tokyo CPI (May) The rebound in industrial output in April coupled with upbeat forecasts for May suggests that the manufacturing sector will return to growth in Q2. However, we still expect the labour market to... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
