Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The drop in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate in May was largely due to lower energy inflation and a reversal of Easter timing effects. But with wage growth likely to have peaked, we expect core... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2019 set to be even worse than 2018 The surprisingly-sharp 3.2% q/q saar fall in output in Q1 has led us to cut our 2019 full-year growth forecast to a below-consensus 0.5%. Given downbeat survey data for Q2, it is possible that the... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s current account deficit to widen further Weak export growth has caused Hungary’s current account balance to swing from a large surplus in 2016 to a small deficit, which is set to widen further. One consequence is that the forint is likely to... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Just how weak is the Swedish krona? Swedish policymakers are increasingly vocal about their concerns that the sharp sell-off in the krona this year has gone too far. But we find little evidence to support the idea that the currency has... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade war doesn’t account for much of the global slowdown The direct effects of the trade war on global GDP have so far probably been negligible. The indirect impact, via weaker confidence and investment, has been bigger. But we estimate that even this... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing slowdown continues in Q2 The fall in the headline EM manufacturing PMI in May provides further evidence that EM GDP growth weakened in Q2. On a more a positive note, the surveys indicate that inflation is easing. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US importers switching suppliers to avoid tariffs In response to the tariffs imposed on China, US importers are switching to alternative suppliers in Asia, which could explain why custom duties revenues have fallen back in the past couple of months... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global industry now in recession? May’s drop in the global manufacturing PMI to below the “no change” level of 50 suggests that the industrial downturn has further to run, with the once resilient US economy succumbing to the malaise. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Multifamily starts set to ease as demand weakens The number of apartments completed for the rental sector has reached its highest level since records began 20-years ago. But absorption rates are low, and a slowing economy means household formation... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 31-month low of 52.1 in May, from 52.8, illustrates that the factory sector is continuing to struggle in the face of weak global demand. It leaves the... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US tariffs on Mexico and the implications for EMs US tariffs on imports from Mexico would have major repercussions for Mexico’s economy, but any spillovers on other EMs through trade links are likely to be small. For the rest of the emerging world... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand looks weak Subdued survey data suggest that China’s economy is likely to soften this quarter, which underpins our generally bearish view on industrial commodities prices in the coming months. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back to 45.4 in May, dampening hopes of a recovery after a weak Q1. The fall in the prices sub-component supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May) The sharper-than-expected drop in the manufacturing PMI from 53.1 to 49.4 means that the index is now at its lowest level since directly after the referendum in July 2016, and suggests that the sector... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (May) The morning’s release of inflation and PMI data from Switzerland for May showed that price pressures remain almost entirely absent and that the industrial sector remains in the shadow of the euro-zone... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
