Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April’s trade data point to net trade making a very large positive contribution to GDP growth this quarter, following the large negative contribution in the first quarter. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) The further fall in Russian inflation to 5.1% y/y last month probably seals the deal on an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting. We expect a 25bp cut to 7.50%. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices plunge, anniversary of Qatar blockade The plunge in oil prices over the past week isn’t a major headache for the largest Gulf economies, but it will exacerbate balance sheet strains in Bahrain and Oman. It also reduces the chances that... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q2 While the economy managed a stronger-than-expected expansion in Q1, this might be as good as it gets this year. The economic news for Q2 so far has been undeniably weak. And if there is a further... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2019, breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy grew at a fairly strong pace, driven mainly by household consumption. But we think that growth will slow in Q2, and with core... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Further signs of weakness The escalation of trade tensions is having much bigger effects on financial markets and oil prices than on real economic performance at the global level. That said, there is clear evidence that global... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI signals further loosening to come The RBI cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting today. Arguably more important, it laid the groundwork for continued loosening in the second half of the year. If soft surveys are correct in... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The smaller trade surplus in April largely reflects commodity price movements so we expect net trade will still make a positive contribution to growth in Q2. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s holding back Brazil’s recovery? Brazil’s recovery from its 2015-16 recession has been exceptionally weak by historic standards, and many of the factors which have held back growth are unlikely to unwind any time soon. Indeed, as... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude and products jumped in the latest weekly data, despite slightly stronger refinery run rates. The apparent weakness of US demand and higher stocks will make it difficult for OPEC+... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Shopping centre yield spread over high streets to rise Concerns about rental growth prospects appear to be behind rising prime shopping centre yields. While we anticipate high street yields to rise also, a smaller correction will see the yield spread... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation expectations increase pressure on ECB Financial market measures of inflation expectations have fallen to levels at which the ECB has loosened policy in the past. Indeed, the ECB’s favoured measure of expectations – the five-year/five-year... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to drop back after second quarter rebound Although the Bank of Canada’s expectations for first-quarter GDP growth were more accurate than our own, we still think the Bank is underestimating the strength of the rebound in growth this quarter... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold has further to rise in 2019 The combination of a scaling back of US interest rate expectations, a struggling S&P 500, and the dollar coming off the boil has lifted the price of gold to a three-month high during the past week... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
