Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in April, of 1.5% m/m, suggests that, after a disappointing Q1, GDP growth will recover in Q2. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about “mini-BOTs”? The Italian government issuing so-called “mini-BOTs” to pay public sector arrears would fuel speculation about Italy’s future in the euro-zone. It seems unlikely that this will happen over the next... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the fall in interest margins overstated? Reflecting changes to the composition of their balance sheets, banks are increasingly pricing their loans off deposit funds, rather than short-term wholesale debt. That suggests there is a downside... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher interest rates not likely to halt lending We think that lower demand for credit as capital values fall will have a larger impact on property lending than higher interest rates because it appears that borrowers will remain comfortable... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Apr.) Manufacturing output jumped to a three-year high of 4.6% y/y in April. This provides the first sign that the economy returned to growth in Q2, thus dodging a technical recession. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish industry shrugging off euro-zone weakness Polish industry has been surprisingly resilient this year, largely reflecting impressive demand from the domestic market. We still expect weak external demand to weigh more heavily on growth in the... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t make a compelling case for EM assets The valuations of EM assets are not particularly low, which is one reason why we expect EM financial markets to suffer along with those elsewhere as the global economy disappoints in the coming... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The labour market remained relatively robust in April, despite the drop in activity in the rest of the economy. While we do expect employment growth to slow over the rest of this year as the available... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1) High LTI and LTV lending saw little movement in Q1, despite competitive pressures on lenders, suggesting that mortgage lending is primarily constrained by demand. With uncertainty set to persist for... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected inflation data for May from Norway are unlikely to prevent the Norges Bank from hiking interest rates again at its policy meeting next week. But they increase the chance that... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Implications for oil of an escalation in the trade war We have now incorporated an escalation in the US-China trade war into our global economic forecasts. As it happens, we think that the negative impact on global GDP growth will be relatively contained... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates set to drop to 2½-year lows Mortgage interest rates are set to fall to their lowest level since the end of 2016, but that will not trigger a surge in housing market activity. Concerns over the health of the economy means home... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus How will the Bank respond to the next downturn? The risk of a recession is arguably higher in Canada than elsewhere and the low level of interest rates limits the ability of the Bank of Canada to respond. Even if the Bank utilises unconventional... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Apr.) April’s GDP figures suggest that the Brexit hangover in Q2 has been heavier than we had expected. We had previously thought GDP would rise by 0.2% q/q in Q2 as a whole, but it’s now possible that GDP... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
