Africa Economics Update S Africa: SOE worries widespread, but few pose real risks Many of South Africa’s state-owned firms face financial and management troubles, but most – like South African Airways – pose little risk to the wider economy. Eskom and Transnet are the only two... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tweaking our (already dovish) ECB forecast Mr Draghi’s comments at the ECB’s press conference last week suggest that the Governing Council is gearing up to loosen monetary policy a bit earlier than we had anticipated. We now think it will... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth remained broadly stable in May. Policy easing has not yet been effective in generating a sustained pick-up in credit growth and is one of the reasons why we don’t expect a strong... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Headline inflation was once again boosted by a sharp rise in pork prices in May. But with core inflation declining to a three-year low, it is clear that demand-side pressures on prices remain muted. 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US-China trade war prompts cuts to our forecasts We have now factored into our forecasts a ratcheting-up of trade tensions between the US and China over the next year. Given this, we have shaved our projections for the prices of some metals. However... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent setback for the US dollar likely to be temporary Although the US dollar has pulled back over the past fortnight, we expect it to strengthen once more against most major currencies in the second half of this year as the global economy slows. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Real yields likely to rebound in the UK, pushing Gilt yields up 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Mexican industrial production in April, of 1.5% m/m, suggests that, after a disappointing Q1, GDP growth will recover in Q2. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about “mini-BOTs”? The Italian government issuing so-called “mini-BOTs” to pay public sector arrears would fuel speculation about Italy’s future in the euro-zone. It seems unlikely that this will happen over the next... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Is the fall in interest margins overstated? Reflecting changes to the composition of their balance sheets, banks are increasingly pricing their loans off deposit funds, rather than short-term wholesale debt. That suggests there is a downside... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Higher interest rates not likely to halt lending We think that lower demand for credit as capital values fall will have a larger impact on property lending than higher interest rates because it appears that borrowers will remain comfortable... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Apr.) Manufacturing output jumped to a three-year high of 4.6% y/y in April. This provides the first sign that the economy returned to growth in Q2, thus dodging a technical recession. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish industry shrugging off euro-zone weakness Polish industry has been surprisingly resilient this year, largely reflecting impressive demand from the domestic market. We still expect weak external demand to weigh more heavily on growth in the... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t make a compelling case for EM assets The valuations of EM assets are not particularly low, which is one reason why we expect EM financial markets to suffer along with those elsewhere as the global economy disappoints in the coming... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The labour market remained relatively robust in April, despite the drop in activity in the rest of the economy. While we do expect employment growth to slow over the rest of this year as the available... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1) High LTI and LTV lending saw little movement in Q1, despite competitive pressures on lenders, suggesting that mortgage lending is primarily constrained by demand. With uncertainty set to persist for... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
