Latin America Economics Update Revisiting our 2019 Latin America growth forecasts The weakness in growth across Latin America in Q1 largely reflected a coincidence of shocks, and probably won’t last. Even so, the weak carryover has prompted us to revise down our (already below-... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth not as strong as LFS suggests Annual wage growth according to the Labour Force Survey looks set to rise towards almost 4% in the coming months, but experience suggests that it is probably exaggerating the true strength of wages... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will African Swine Fever have on EMs? African Swine Fever has already pushed inflation in China up markedly and, if the disease spreads further, it could also add around 0.3%-pts to inflation in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in rent expectations won’t boost rental growth Unlike house price expectations, the theoretical link between rent expectations and actual rental growth is weak. Indeed, changes in rental expectations have proven to be a poor leading indicator... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jun.) OPEC highlighted risks to demand and high stocks in its latest report which, coupled with lower prices, suggest that there will be little appetite for increasing production when the group meets later... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Regional tensions go up a notch, rising chance of conflict Attacks this morning on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman provide the latest sign that geopolitical tensions in the region are mounting and there is a significant and increasing risk that events morph... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to a better start of Q2 Mining figures for April released today were softer than expected, but stronger conditions in the rest of the economy suggest that the second quarter started on a brighter note. This means that South... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Markets have fingers in their ears about rate rises There isn’t much chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday 20th June, but we expect the MPC will use the opportunity to repeat... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s decline in euro-zone industrial production, together with timelier survey data, suggests that the sector performed poorly in Q2. 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2019) The recent escalation of the US-China trade war appears to have resulted in net capital outflows from EMs in May – the first time that has happened since January. With the trade war likely to... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold for now, but next move to be down As expected, Swiss policymakers maintained their expansionary monetary policy at their June policy meeting. But the recent shift to a looser bias in the US and the euro-zone only strengthens our view... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors’ trade war focus risks missing bigger picture Investors seem as pessimistic about the US-China trade war now as they have ever been. Indeed, it would probably come as little surprise to markets if the two sides imposed tariffs on virtually all... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Price level targets wouldn’t solve policy problems The past month has seen a significant change in tone from the world’s major central banks and in expectations of their policies. As fears over trade tensions have mounted and economic data have... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) The RICS measure of new buyer enquires was broadly flat in May, breaking the 9-month run of declining demand. That said, it is still far too soon to call a housing market recovery. 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (May) The surge in employment in May is unlikely to be sustained as the softness in economic activity limits employment growth. We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.3% before the end of the year. 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
