Capital Daily What to make of the plunge in Treasury inflation compensation 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Core inflation to decline in 2020 Wage growth looks set to rise modestly, but the effect on unit labour costs is likely to be offset by a rebound in productivity growth. This suggests that core inflation will remain close to 2.0% in... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) Nigerian inflation remained, at 11.4% y/y, above the central bank’s target range in May, but policymakers will probably still cut their key interest rate in July. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) The small pick-up in total labour cost growth to 2.4% y/y in Q1 was concentrated in the economies which have been hit hardest by the recent downturn and where the labour market has already begun to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Home sales reassuringly unresponsive to sales tax hike A modest drop in home sales recently is a reassuring sign that the October sales tax hike will cause less disruption to the economy than previous tax increases did. Contracts on new property purchases... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Assessing the case for build to rent A high house price to rent ratio disadvantages the development of build-to-rent, relative to build-to-sell. And with capital values unlikely to grow as quickly as they have done in the past, total... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines Current Account (Q1), Remittances (Apr.) The current account deficit of the Philippines widened again last quarter and is likely to remain a key source of vulnerability over the coming year. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Demand concerns are now driving prices Markets appear to have come round to our long-held view that slower economic activity this year will weigh on the prices of most energy and industrial commodities. Not even an attack on oil tankers... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Exporters left Kawhi-ing in face of global weakness Any boost to spending from the Raptors’ NBA finals victory won’t make up for weakness elsewhere, with Export Development Canada reporting this week that its semi-annual Trade Confidence Index has... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed unlikely to unveil panic rate cut next week The weakness in core consumer prices in May, which increased by only 0.1% m/m for a fourth consecutive month, is not on its own a valid reason for the Fed to cut interest rates at the upcoming FOMC... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation can fall further even if oil stabilises 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate cuts coming in Brazil, Argentine political jostling The weakness of the Brazilian economy and rapidly falling inflation mean we now expect an interest rate cut, and we think there is a window of opportunity for Copom to act at next week’s meeting... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in May was largely due to a weather-related 2.1% m/m bounce-back in utilities output. Given the weak global backdrop and the deteriorating survey evidence... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore over $100 per tonne will prove temporary Iron ore prices have soared on the back of disruptions to supply and strong growth in demand from China’s steel sector. We think that neither will last. Consequently, we expect the price of iron ore... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The stronger 0.5% m/m rise in underlying retail sales in May, along with upward revisions to previous months’ gains, suggests that real consumption growth will accelerate to almost 4% annualised in... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: easing cycle has further to run The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish communications accompanying today’s decision to cut the key rate support our view that more monetary loosening lies in store over the coming quarters. We expect... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
