Global Economics Update Rising wage growth won’t prevent policy loosening Wage growth has strengthened in several advanced economies despite the global economic slowdown. But, outside the UK, we do not expect this to prevent monetary policy loosening. Strong productivity... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Total returns set to be sharply lower With the ECB likely to loosen monetary policy before too long, government bond yields look set to stay at very low levels for some time. As a result, we think that yield compression has a little... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Nationalbank to match ECB rate cut, eventually The small interest rate cut that we now forecast by the ECB in December is unlikely to be matched immediately by Denmark’s Nationalbank (DNB). But given that upward pressure on the krone is now likely... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for April provide the first hard evidence that, after returning to growth in Q1, the economy contracted again in Q2. This supports our view... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would US rate cuts mean for Asia? Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch What our new view on trade means for commodities We no longer expect the US and China to strike a deal on trade, and now forecast that the two countries’ dispute will escalate further. In this Commodities Watch, we lay out what our new view on trade... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s IMF deal: end of term report Egypt’s IMF deal has proved successful in helping to repair the country’s balance sheets, but many of the structural constraints facing the economy remain in place and will be extremely difficult to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of the plunge in Treasury inflation compensation 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Core inflation to decline in 2020 Wage growth looks set to rise modestly, but the effect on unit labour costs is likely to be offset by a rebound in productivity growth. This suggests that core inflation will remain close to 2.0% in... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) Nigerian inflation remained, at 11.4% y/y, above the central bank’s target range in May, but policymakers will probably still cut their key interest rate in July. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) The small pick-up in total labour cost growth to 2.4% y/y in Q1 was concentrated in the economies which have been hit hardest by the recent downturn and where the labour market has already begun to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Home sales reassuringly unresponsive to sales tax hike A modest drop in home sales recently is a reassuring sign that the October sales tax hike will cause less disruption to the economy than previous tax increases did. Contracts on new property purchases... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Assessing the case for build to rent A high house price to rent ratio disadvantages the development of build-to-rent, relative to build-to-sell. And with capital values unlikely to grow as quickly as they have done in the past, total... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines Current Account (Q1), Remittances (Apr.) The current account deficit of the Philippines widened again last quarter and is likely to remain a key source of vulnerability over the coming year. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Demand concerns are now driving prices Markets appear to have come round to our long-held view that slower economic activity this year will weigh on the prices of most energy and industrial commodities. Not even an attack on oil tankers... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Exporters left Kawhi-ing in face of global weakness Any boost to spending from the Raptors’ NBA finals victory won’t make up for weakness elsewhere, with Export Development Canada reporting this week that its semi-annual Trade Confidence Index has... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
