Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks continued to rise this week, despite the increase in the refinery utilisation rate, a fall in net imports and lower production. This put further downward pressure on prices, which had... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Donald Trump, not the Fed, to blame for a strong dollar Donald Trump’s assertion on Twitter yesterday that a “way too high” Fed interest rate was responsible for a “devalued” euro and other currencies against the dollar is wrong, at least when it comes to... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The subdued 0.1% gain in core consumer prices in May extends a run of weaker gains, underlining the lack of significant inflationary pressures a decade into this expansion. Subdued growth in unit... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A poor harvest unlikely to boost corn prices further At first glance, the USDA’s latest set of projections appear bullish for the price of corn. However, we think that much of this is already priced in and as such we are not changing our corn price... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank won’t ease policy anytime soon A looming slowdown in GDP growth and the prospect of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve has prompted speculation that the BoJ will have to ease policy by the end of this year. However, the Bank... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) While India's headline inflation edged up in May and is likely to rise further, a sizeable fall in core inflation will be seen by policymakers at the RBI as vindication of their view that there is... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack GDP growth set to slow in Q2 Q1 GDP data for Switzerland and the Nordic economies were a mixed big and proved the adage that the devil is in the detail. Switzerland and Sweden both posted the same headline growth rate (0.6% q/q)... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT inches towards easing, but lira risks linger The Turkish central bank provided further hints at today’s meeting that it is moving towards monetary easing. But policy moves will hinge on the lira and, with a number of flashpoints on the horizon... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: SOE worries widespread, but few pose real risks Many of South Africa’s state-owned firms face financial and management troubles, but most – like South African Airways – pose little risk to the wider economy. Eskom and Transnet are the only two... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tweaking our (already dovish) ECB forecast Mr Draghi’s comments at the ECB’s press conference last week suggest that the Governing Council is gearing up to loosen monetary policy a bit earlier than we had anticipated. We now think it will... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Credit growth remained broadly stable in May. Policy easing has not yet been effective in generating a sustained pick-up in credit growth and is one of the reasons why we don’t expect a strong... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Headline inflation was once again boosted by a sharp rise in pork prices in May. But with core inflation declining to a three-year low, it is clear that demand-side pressures on prices remain muted. 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US-China trade war prompts cuts to our forecasts We have now factored into our forecasts a ratcheting-up of trade tensions between the US and China over the next year. Given this, we have shaved our projections for the prices of some metals. However... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent setback for the US dollar likely to be temporary Although the US dollar has pulled back over the past fortnight, we expect it to strengthen once more against most major currencies in the second half of this year as the global economy slows. 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Real yields likely to rebound in the UK, pushing Gilt yields up 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
