Latin America Economics Update Chilean rate cut likely to be a one-off We think that the surprise decision by Chilean policymakers to cut the policy interest rate by 50bp on Friday night to 2.50% will prove to be a one off. Interest rates are likely to remain unchanged... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: underlying price pressures are contained The rise in Russian inflation in late-2018 and early-2019 was driven largely by higher food prices and a VAT hike. To overcome these distortions, we’ve created a measure of ‘underlying’ inflation... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer in China’s May trade data China’s commodity import volumes were subdued last month, which is consistent with our view of soft Chinese domestic demand and downward pressure on commodity prices. Moreover, while there was no... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices & Whole Economy PMIs (May) The rise in Egyptian inflation in May, combined with upcoming subsidy cuts, means that the central bank will almost certainly refrain from resuming its easing cycle in the coming months. Meanwhile... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Fed easing not a panacea for commodities Driven in large part by investors pricing in a greater degree of interest rate cuts in the US, the gold price leapt to its highest level in over a year this week. That same anticipation of policy... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The US steel price bloodbath is not over yet US steel prices have tumbled by more than a third over the past year and we think that a weaker US economy, combined with rising imports, means prices should fall by a further 15% over the next year. 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade war escalates with economy already weakening This week we formally incorporated a further escalation of the US-China trade dispute into our baseline macro forecasts, shaving 0.2% points off US GDP growth both this year and next, taking us to 2.2... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Prospect of US rate cuts unlikely to keep S&P 500 rally going 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade tensions to weigh on growth April’s trade data painted a positive picture of the manufacturing sector, but the further fall in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the outlook for exporters is bleak. Conditions could... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market struggles to gather momentum Despite an improvement in mortgage approvals, the housing market has struggled to gather any upward momentum. Indeed, with buyer confidence still weak and house prices still high relative to incomes... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The small decline in Mexican inflation, to 4.3% y/y in May, confirms that the headline rate has passed its peak. Even so, concerns about the prospect of US tariffs, as well as the recent credit rating... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) Another strong month for employment and a further rise in wage growth seems to support the Bank of Canada’s view that the recent economic slowdown was mainly due to temporary factors. But with both... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The soft 75,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May wasn’t quite as bad as the dismal ADP employment reading earlier this week, but it is another sign that economic growth is slowing. On balance, we... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark shifts left; NOK to rise despite lower oil price Political news dominated this week, with the left-wing ‘red-bloc’ winning a majority in Denmark’s election and the successful formation of a five-party coalition in Finland – the Rinne Cabinet. On the... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hints at looser policy, Italy in the dock President Draghi’s comments at this week’s press conference were consistent with our view that the ECB will eventually re-start its QE programme. Meanwhile, Italy looks set for another collision with... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
