US Economics Weekly Fed unlikely to unveil panic rate cut next week The weakness in core consumer prices in May, which increased by only 0.1% m/m for a fourth consecutive month, is not on its own a valid reason for the Fed to cut interest rates at the upcoming FOMC... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation can fall further even if oil stabilises 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate cuts coming in Brazil, Argentine political jostling The weakness of the Brazilian economy and rapidly falling inflation mean we now expect an interest rate cut, and we think there is a window of opportunity for Copom to act at next week’s meeting... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The 0.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in May was largely due to a weather-related 2.1% m/m bounce-back in utilities output. Given the weak global backdrop and the deteriorating survey evidence... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore over $100 per tonne will prove temporary Iron ore prices have soared on the back of disruptions to supply and strong growth in demand from China’s steel sector. We think that neither will last. Consequently, we expect the price of iron ore... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The stronger 0.5% m/m rise in underlying retail sales in May, along with upward revisions to previous months’ gains, suggests that real consumption growth will accelerate to almost 4% annualised in... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: easing cycle has further to run The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish communications accompanying today’s decision to cut the key rate support our view that more monetary loosening lies in store over the coming quarters. We expect... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s S-400 deal, Russia’s sanction risk Turkish assets look set to come under more pressure in the coming weeks as the government pushes ahead with its plans to purchase a Russian missile defence system. Meanwhile, comments from Russia’s... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Old-school stimulus, HK protests, PBOC still selling FX China’s policymakers are returning to the familiar playbook of local government infrastructure spending to shore up growth but still, it appears, on a relatively small scale. Meanwhile, despite the... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro looking undervalued, especially for Germany Following Mario Draghi’s more dovish comments earlier in the month, we now think the Governing Council is more willing to loosen policy further and have revised our already more-dovish-than-consensus... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Unlike bond yields, we expect equities to fall further Investors are now even more dovish that we have long been about the outlook for monetary policy in the US. As such, we doubt that Treasury yields will drop further. However, we don’t expect looser... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Perma-doves at the SNB, Norges Bank to hike again The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its monetary policy settings unchanged on Thursday was something of a formality. But whereas some commentators have suggested that the Bank is out of... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy off to a bad start in Q2, Johnson takes the lead Even if some of the weakness in activity in April comes back in May, GDP growth will still struggle to hit the Bank of England’s Q2 forecast of 0.2%. As such, we doubt that they will raise rates at... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK hints at rate cuts, tourism slumps in Sri Lanka Policymakers in Korea finally seem to be coming around to our view that rate cuts are needed to support the struggling economy after BoK Governor hinted that the central bank “must take appropriate... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What do oil price moves mean for core inflation? Oil prices have fallen close to our end-year forecast and should drag on inflation during the rest of 2019. Admittedly, the risks to our oil price forecast are skewed to the upside. But even a surge... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
