UK Data Response Public Finances (May) While borrowing was higher than expected in May, the underlying picture is healthier. That should give the next Prime Minister greater scope to borrow more to increase spending or cut taxes without... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) The slight improvement in the flash PMIs for June will not be enough to deflect the ECB from its new plan to ease policy within the coming months. We expect it to cut its deposit rate by 10bp in... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update And then there were two The outlook for the economy should be similar with either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt at the helm. After all, both have committed to loosening fiscal policy. And although both are willing to leave... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Google’s homes will have little impact on prices Any new housing in the San Francisco Bay area is welcome, but Google’s plan to help build 20,000 homes over the next decade will have little impact on prices. The San Francisco metro has the tightest... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the rallies in Treasuries, JGBs and Gilts to last 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The writing is on the wall for Chinese steel Chinese steel rebar prices have been bolstered recently by surprisingly resilient construction activity, but we expect demand to falter in the coming months and prices to fall sharply. 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Cyprus to outperform euro-zone, but risks remain Cyprus has now recovered from the economic crisis of 2012-13, which was caused primarily by its oversized banking sector. While a number of risks remain, notably the high level of non-performing loans... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Fed’s dovish shift embraced by markets Although only a minority of Fed officials anticipate that interest rates will need to be cut at all this year and not a single official believes that rates will need to be reduced by more than 50bp in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book: London prices and transactions weaken London’s owner occupier housing market performed poorly, as prices fell and transactions stayed in reverse gear. With house prices high and uncertainty continuing to bite, a recovery in prices and... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) May’s activity data suggest that, following extremely weak GDP growth in Q1, Russia’s economy has failed to gather much momentum in Q2. 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation risks shifting to the downside Price pressures have weakened further against a backdrop of worsening prospects for the global economy. The recent fall in the oil price implies that energy effects will drag on headline inflation in... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) Global aluminium production was unable to shake off its recent malaise in May. That said, lower input costs could offer some support to output this year. But regardless of any supply developments, our... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC softens tone on interest rate rises Given the drop in GDP in April and the fall in inflation back to target in May, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from 0.75% today. What’s more, the tone of the... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Taiwan to be left on hold Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.375%, and is likely to be in little rush to cut interest rates despite the poor outlook for growth. We expect interest rates to be... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon debt fears, regional tensions, Fed rate cuts The widening of Lebanese dollar bond spreads over the past week suggests that investors are coming round to our view that the authorities will need to resort to a debt restructuring. Meanwhile, this... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
