Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank sets a high bar for easing The Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB’s) cautious statement from last night’s meeting will disappoint the markets, which had expected Copom to lay the ground for the start of an easing cycle. With the... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report After a recent run of large builds, last week’s drawdowns in US stocks of both commercial crude and gasoline point to an improvement in US oil demand. But with stocks still relatively high, we think... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Surpluses to weigh on cobalt prices in 2019 and 2020 There has been a renewed slump in the price of cobalt in recent months, owing in large part to a jump in supply. In this Metals Watch, we explore cobalt’s short-term supply and demand prospects and... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors hoping for unlikely mix of rate cuts and strong earnings 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The upside surprises in core and headline inflation in May reduce the chance of the Bank cutting interest rates in the next few months. But we expect core inflation to drift back down in the second... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export weakness to persist, trade deal or not The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit has raised hopes of a US-China trade deal but, as things stand, we think it is more likely that the trade war will ultimately... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Sri Lanka accelerated in the first quarter of the year, but with tourism arrivals collapsing following the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks, growth is likely to slow sharply this year. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank unlikely to cut rates further, for now Investors have slashed their expectations for interest rate hikes in Sweden over the coming years and are now broadly in line with our previously well below consensus view. But while we now forecast... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Monetary easing unlikely to drive a sustained rally Hopes that much looser monetary policy, particularly in the US, will prevent more weakness in the global economy have supported emerging market (EM) assets recently, but we doubt that this will last. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Cash will remain king for a long time yet Cashless transactions in India have risen sharply over the past few years, and recent developments should further support the expansion of digital payments. But while there is a clear willingness from... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will regional office rental growth still pick up? Although weakness in occupier conditions in the West Midlands looks likely to weigh on Rest of UK office rental value growth in the near term, an improvement in the South West and less of a drag from... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May 2019) CPI inflation is likely to bob about the 2% mark for the next couple of months, but there are still reasons to think that it will drift up again towards the end of the year. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s electricity reform: necessary but insufficient Reform of Lebanon’s state-owned electricity company, EdL, lies at the heart of the government’s efforts to tackle the dire public finances. But while this is needed, the approved measures are unlikely... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) Inflation remained at the 4.5% mid-point of central bank’s target range in May, providing the space for policymakers to support the economy by cutting their key interest rate next month. 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (May) Easing Saudi deflation in May suggests that the recent pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector is feeding through into price pressures. In addition, a fresh round of subsidy cuts is looking... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (May) The wider trade deficit in May was a result of a sharp fall in exports and a slight fall in imports. Although export volumes are unlikely to be as weak as they were in the last quarter, a likely... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
