UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (May.) The faster rate of house price growth recorded by the Halifax is an outlier, and should largely be discounted. Indeed, the other main indices report house prices rising by less than 2% per year – a... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s fall in industrial production adds to the evidence that Germany has not shaken off the problems which hit it nearly a year ago, and suggests that the economy slowed sharply in Q2. 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Headline CPI inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in May, which will be used by the central bank as vindication of its change to a more dovish policy stance in yesterday’s... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economic outlook is subdued regardless of tariffs Our forecast that the housing downturn would weigh on economic activity and force the RBA to cut rates was proven right this week. And given recent data suggest there is considerable spare capacity in... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Although wage growth recovered in April, sampling distortions mean that it remains much weaker than what is implied by the tightness of labour market. But even once those distortions abate, a... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Factoring the escalating trade war into our forecasts We are now incorporating a further escalation in the trade war with China into our global forecasts. We think that will knock a few tenths off annual US GDP growth this year and next. Core PCE... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Preparing for a long trade war A deal to end the US-China trade dispute appears further away than ever. We now expect all US goods imports from China to be subject to a 25% tariff by early next year. China is likely to respond with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil‘s plunge makes rollover of OPEC cuts more likely Caught up in the broader sell-off in risky assets triggered by the latest escalation in trade tensions, oil prices have plunged in recent weeks, and the prices of most other energy commodities have... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are sovereign default risks greatest? There is growing attention on sovereign debt risks in some EMs. Vulnerabilities seem to be most acute in Argentina as well as in some of the smaller economies in the Middle East and Africa such as... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB inching towards more QE The measures announced by the ECB today were underwhelming, but policymakers have been considering how to respond to any further economic weakness. All the signs are that they would favour more QE... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Risk aversion is another headwind for metals prices The recent escalation in global trade tensions and ongoing weakness in the world economy have led to a sell-off in risky assets, including most industrial metals. In contrast, the price of gold has... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How might supply affect regional retail rental values? Although retail demand has improved, the oversupply of property is expected to hold down retail rents for some time. But the speed of adjustment to the ‘new norm’ of retail stock could differ across... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The trade deficit narrowed in April, but only because imports fell more than exports. As a result, after providing a big boost in the first quarter, we expect net external trade to have a neutral... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
