China Economics Update Preparing for a long trade war A deal to end the US-China trade dispute appears further away than ever. We now expect all US goods imports from China to be subject to a 25% tariff by early next year. China is likely to respond with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil‘s plunge makes rollover of OPEC cuts more likely Caught up in the broader sell-off in risky assets triggered by the latest escalation in trade tensions, oil prices have plunged in recent weeks, and the prices of most other energy commodities have... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are sovereign default risks greatest? There is growing attention on sovereign debt risks in some EMs. Vulnerabilities seem to be most acute in Argentina as well as in some of the smaller economies in the Middle East and Africa such as... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB inching towards more QE The measures announced by the ECB today were underwhelming, but policymakers have been considering how to respond to any further economic weakness. All the signs are that they would favour more QE... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Risk aversion is another headwind for metals prices The recent escalation in global trade tensions and ongoing weakness in the world economy have led to a sell-off in risky assets, including most industrial metals. In contrast, the price of gold has... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How might supply affect regional retail rental values? Although retail demand has improved, the oversupply of property is expected to hold down retail rents for some time. But the speed of adjustment to the ‘new norm’ of retail stock could differ across... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The trade deficit narrowed in April, but only because imports fell more than exports. As a result, after providing a big boost in the first quarter, we expect net external trade to have a neutral... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April’s trade data point to net trade making a very large positive contribution to GDP growth this quarter, following the large negative contribution in the first quarter. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) The further fall in Russian inflation to 5.1% y/y last month probably seals the deal on an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting. We expect a 25bp cut to 7.50%. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices plunge, anniversary of Qatar blockade The plunge in oil prices over the past week isn’t a major headache for the largest Gulf economies, but it will exacerbate balance sheet strains in Bahrain and Oman. It also reduces the chances that... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Heading for a weak Q2 While the economy managed a stronger-than-expected expansion in Q1, this might be as good as it gets this year. The economic news for Q2 so far has been undeniably weak. And if there is a further... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2019, breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 confirmed that the economy grew at a fairly strong pace, driven mainly by household consumption. But we think that growth will slow in Q2, and with core... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Further signs of weakness The escalation of trade tensions is having much bigger effects on financial markets and oil prices than on real economic performance at the global level. That said, there is clear evidence that global... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI signals further loosening to come The RBI cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting today. Arguably more important, it laid the groundwork for continued loosening in the second half of the year. If soft surveys are correct in... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
