Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5%

We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with previous measures it means that the trade war is likely to leave global GDP 0.5% lower than it would have otherwise been by the end of 2020. And it’s another reason to expect world GDP growth to fall to its slowest rate since 2009 next year.