Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the rise in EM food inflation? Headline EM inflation has risen in the last few months due to a sharp jump in food inflation. African Swine Fever could keep food inflation in China high into next year, although supply shocks... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs add to evidence of a slowdown in Q2 After global GDP was stronger than expected in Q1, the continued weakness in the latest business surveys among advanced economies suggests that the world economy will lose steam in the second quarter. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) The drop in new home sales in April came from an upwardly revised March figure, and sales were up 7% over the year. A healthier level of inventory is helping the new home market outperform the... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t write off higher inflation Yesterday’s revelation that inflation in April rose above the Bank of England’s 2% target captured the headlines, but inflation was actually weaker than we had expected. A closer inspection suggests... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: easing cycle on hold until late-2019 The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold (rather than cut them) reflected policymakers’ concerns about the inflationary impact of upcoming subsidy cuts. But with... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London LTI correction still to come Rather than scale back their borrowing, buyers in London have taken advantage of falling house prices by purchasing better homes. But much of that reflects the continued ultra-low interest rate... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but cuts likely in July Today’s MPC statement strengthened our view that policymakers at the SARB will cut rates soon. Indeed, a shift in opinion on the council has led us to move our forecast of a 25bp cut forward to July’s... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Having risen in the last few months, Mexican inflation was unchanged at 4.4% y/y in the first half of May, supporting our view that the recent increase in the headline rate was temporary. We expect... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Account shows ECB divided but dovish The account of the ECB’s latest monetary policy meeting confirms that policymakers were concerned about downside risks to economic activity and, particularly, inflation. This reinforces our view that... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain cautious despite stronger run of data The economy is performing better than the Bank of Canada previously expected, but the outlook remains challenging. We expect the Bank to keep policy unchanged next week and anticipate another fairly... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s subsidy cuts, OPEC+ to renew output deal Electricity price hikes announced in Egypt this week are actually less aggressive than last year’s, but this will shave only a small amount off headline inflation. And with fuel price increases still... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May.) The flash PMIs for the euro-zone continued to disappoint in May and suggest that the economic growth dropped back again in the second quarter. And with the Ifo Business Climate Index having fallen to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Apr.) April’s strong batch of activity data suggests that, following an already-impressive Q1, Poland’s economy accelerated at the start of Q2. Our GDP Tracker points to growth of 5.3% y/y in April. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Lebanon stuck between a rock and a hard place The outlook for Lebanon’s economy is going from bad to worse. The most immediate threat is that the country could find itself caught in the crosshairs amid escalating tensions between the Gulf... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose again this week partly due to a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), which caused prices to drop sharply today. Despite this, we still think that crude... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
