UK Economics Update Prime Minister Theresa May resigns The resignation of Prime Minister, Theresa May, supports our recent view that the chances of a Brexit deal have fallen and that the chances of another delay and a no deal Brexit have risen. While the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for housing market has brightened Proposed changes by Australia’s bank regulator will increase the maximum loan size for some borrowers. While that is unlikely to bolster housing demand much at this stage, as the RBA lowers interest... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The surge in April’s headline inflation was accompanied by an acceleration in underlying inflation, which rose to its highest in almost three years. However, we suspect that underlying inflation will... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Employment gains set to slow The one bright spot over the past six months has been the strength of the labour market. The Labour Force Survey revealed a record-breaking 107,000 jump in employment in April. Even the more reliable... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors increasingly negative on commodities Investor positioning in the futures markets for both metals and agriculturals has taken a downward turn recently. While the picture is not uniform across commodities, we think that investor selling... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Higher loadings won’t stop palladium prices falling We have revised up our estimates of palladium demand, despite weak car sales, due to higher loadings in China and Europe. We still expect the price of palladium to fall back from $1,310 per ounce... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Divergence in E-Z peripheral bonds likely to continue The yield of 10-year government bonds in Italy has moved in the opposite direction to the yields of 10-year government bonds in Spain and Portugal recently. While we don’t expect that to continue, we... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the rise in EM food inflation? Headline EM inflation has risen in the last few months due to a sharp jump in food inflation. African Swine Fever could keep food inflation in China high into next year, although supply shocks... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs add to evidence of a slowdown in Q2 After global GDP was stronger than expected in Q1, the continued weakness in the latest business surveys among advanced economies suggests that the world economy will lose steam in the second quarter. 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) The drop in new home sales in April came from an upwardly revised March figure, and sales were up 7% over the year. A healthier level of inventory is helping the new home market outperform the... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Don’t write off higher inflation Yesterday’s revelation that inflation in April rose above the Bank of England’s 2% target captured the headlines, but inflation was actually weaker than we had expected. A closer inspection suggests... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: easing cycle on hold until late-2019 The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold (rather than cut them) reflected policymakers’ concerns about the inflationary impact of upcoming subsidy cuts. But with... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London LTI correction still to come Rather than scale back their borrowing, buyers in London have taken advantage of falling house prices by purchasing better homes. But much of that reflects the continued ultra-low interest rate... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold, but cuts likely in July Today’s MPC statement strengthened our view that policymakers at the SARB will cut rates soon. Indeed, a shift in opinion on the council has led us to move our forecast of a 25bp cut forward to July’s... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Having risen in the last few months, Mexican inflation was unchanged at 4.4% y/y in the first half of May, supporting our view that the recent increase in the headline rate was temporary. We expect... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
