Asia Economics Weekly Philippines loosens further, Pakistan back to the IMF The recently announced cut to the reserve requirement ratio in the Philippines should provide a boost to economic growth and suggests that further cuts to the policy rate are likely soon. Meanwhile... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Q1 resilience won’t mark the end of the global slowdown Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially ledus to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code is finding its feet Three years to the week that it was ratified, India’s bankruptcy code is now making a significant difference to the speed at which bankruptcy cases are resolved and the amount that creditors are able... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Echoes of 2018 This month’s escalation of US-China trade tensions and renewed concerns about Argentina and Turkey’s economic vulnerabilities have clear parallels with 2018, when these same factors triggered a sell... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market’s strong performance will soon end Trade uncertainty and increased competition in the food delivery service sector help to explain the unusual strength of employment growth. Surveys now suggest that jobs growth will slow and, even with... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy is heading for another clash with the EU Recent comments by Italy’s deputy prime minister have increased the risk that Italy is placed in an EU disciplinary procedure later this year. There are a few ways that talks about Italy’s fiscal... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bund yields likely to stay negative for much longer than in 2016 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What might trigger a hard landing in China? Structural headwinds will weigh on China’s growth rate over the coming decade. If well managed, this slowdown will be gradual. But a more abrupt adjustment shouldn’t be ruled out. We see two main... 16th May 2019 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Housing starts maintained their recent revival during April, while building permits also rose. Strong housebuilder confidence and solid underlying demand are expected to support starts over the next... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) Following transport-related disruption in February, manufacturing sales more than made up for that earlier weakness with a 2.1% m/m rise in March. Given the subdued tone of the business surveys... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran tensions hit markets, Tunisia’s external risks mount Mounting friction between the US and Iran has dominated the news flow this week and weighed on financial markets across the MENA region. Investors seem to be most concerned that Lebanon will get... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Lower bond yields won’t stop rises in property yields Although bond yields have fallen, property yields have edged higher and we expect this divergence to continue this year as uncertainty has been prolonged and as concerns over rental growth prospects... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rate cuts unlikely despite dovish shift Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today and hinted that it may consider loosening policy over the coming months. However, with the rupiah likely to lose more ground... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Who is getting a pay rise of over 3%? The labour market is running hot, but some people doubt that wages are rising by more than 3% a year. That is probably because higher pay growth is being driven by the small share of workers switching... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Q1 resilience won’t mark the end of the global slowdown Global GDP growth in the first quarter was stronger than the January and February data had initially led us to fear, but we do not think that this marks a turnaround in the fortunes of the world... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update PBOC still wary of CNY weakness despite tariff threat The 2% fall in the renminbi since the US-China trade war flared up again reflects market pressure more than a deliberate policy choice – Chinese policymakers have actually been trying to slow its... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
