Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to grim result in Q1 March retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2.0% in Q1. This strengthens our belief that the next rate move will be a cut. 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP, Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) Given that the improvement in Q1 was at least partly due to temporary factors, and that business surveys have remained uniformly downbeat, we suspect that the German economy will lose momentum again... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2019) Another strong batch of GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe suggests that strong domestic demand continued to offset weak external demand in Q1. We expect that growth will remain robust over the... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) The April activity and spending data were weaker than anticipated across the board, confirming our doubts about the durability of March’s strength and increasing the likelihood of further policy... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Implications of the escalating trade war The impact of the renewed escalation of trade tensions between the US and China on Japan’s economy should be small even allowing for second-round effects on financial markets and confidence. A bigger... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor gloom set to deepen Industrial metals prices have slid in recent weeks and despite investor positions approaching a three-year trough, we think that further investor selling will contribute to even lower metals prices... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) Following the recent escalation of US sanctions on Iran’s crude exports, attention has been focused on OPEC’s next move. An upward revision to global demand for OPEC crude could give some members... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of US auto tariffs limited to a few countries With the twists and turns in the US-China trade talks grabbing most of the headlines, the looming deadline for the decision on US auto tariffs as part of the Section 232 investigation has received... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the rise in US-Iran tensions means for the Gulf Mounting friction between the US and Iran is likely to cause Iran’s economic downturn to deepen but, on its own, this doesn’t pose a major problem for the Gulf economies. The bigger threat is that... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: IMF deal to cause growth to slow Pakistan’s agreement with the IMF is likely to lead to slower growth and higher inflation in the short term. However, policy tightening and structural reforms should lead to an improvement in the... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: More railway problems, commercial debt worries The latest changes to Kenya’s railway plan have focused attention on the Chinese-funded SGR project. But the country’s real debt problems surround its growing eurobond sales, which will increase with... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazilian inflation? Brazilian inflation has probably now reached a peak and the headline rate should fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. With core inflation still extremely soft, the central bank... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will ending PDRs be bad news for housing supply? Labour intends to end Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) for office to residential conversions. This is a further blow to this scheme, which was already losing momentum, though it is unlikely to make... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Warsaw office rents really turned a corner? Warsaw office demand is likely to slow over the next two years, while completions of new space will increase. But, we still expect to see an overall rise in prime CBD rents in the next few years. 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trouble brewing in coffee markets Coffee prices recently reached their lowest levels in around a decade. That said, we suspect that prices are bottoming out and should pick up slightly by the end of this year. But looking beyond 2019... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
