Global Central Bank Watch Tweaks to forward guidance won’t be enough While the major advanced economy central banks have made no significant policy changes in recent weeks, a key theme has been a continued shift in their forward guidance to imply that interest rates... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.9% y/y in April, is unlikely to trouble Copom. The increase was driven by food, energy and administered prices; core inflation still looks soft. The... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Returns from Dublin offices to slip further In spite of healthy occupier demand of late, poor rental growth prospects mean that total returns from Dublin offices will continue to be amongst the lowest in the euro-zone. 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Policymakers haven’t saved the day We think the assumption in markets that looser policy in the US and China will revive the global economy before very long is too optimistic. We are forecasting further weakness, regardless of whether... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly More of the same in Indonesia, Thai election result In his first major policy speech since his re-election President Joko Widodo promised to press ahead with plans to boost infrastructure spending, reduce bureaucracy and open up the economy to foreign... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q1 2019) The Q1 GDP figures presented a slightly stronger picture of the economy’s recent performance than we had expected. But with some activity likely to have been brought forward, we doubt Q2 will be as... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.) Norwegian inflation data for April, released this morning, remained well above the Norges Bank’s 2.0% target and will reinforce policymakers’ current hawkish stance. 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff hike, fiscal support, inflation risks The US hiked tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. This escalation in trade tensions comes at a challenging time for the Chinese economy, with export growth already weak, fiscal support waning and swine... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to be disappointed by the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) sounded a little more upbeat than the statement issued after the Bank kept rates on hold on Tuesday. We still think that the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Data concerns come to the fore again Recent revelations have once again cast a spotlight on the accuracy of Indian data, but unfortunately, we doubt that the formation of an independent regulator, that some have called for, would lead to... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The recent slump in wage growth reflects sampling changes as well as falling working hours. Given the current level of the unemployment rate, wages should be growing by around 1% and we expect a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update House price falls in San Francisco to be modest Annual house price growth in San Francisco, and some other western cities, looks set to turn negative over the next few months. But with no sign of a rise in the number of homes being put on the... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Safe havens likely to remain in demand regardless of trade deal 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Balance sheets improving, but vulnerabilities remain The health of balance sheets across the Middle East and North Africa have come under the spotlight in recent months. We are most concerned about some of the smaller economies, particularly Lebanon. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Little chance of a much bigger fiscal stimulus On current plans, national governments in the euro-zone will deliver a modest fiscal stimulus worth around 0.5% of GDP during 2019 and 2020 combined. Hopes that it might be scaled up significantly... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
