Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina policy U-turn continues, Maduro clings on The decision by Argentina’s central bank to scrap the peso’s trading band and signal more FX intervention has shored up the currency this week but, sooner rather than later, markets are likely to test... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect the US dollar to make more headway We haven’t been surprised by this year’s rise in the US dollar’s value against other “majors”, despite investors’ dovish reassessment of the outlook for Fed policy. Despite its pull-back today, we... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is Trump right and the Fed wrong? President Donald Trump was at his trolling best earlier in the week when he tweeted shortly before the FOMC meeting that the Fed should cut interest rates by 1% point and restart quantitative easing... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed still likely to cut rates this year, pushing Treasury yields down 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy stronger in March, but housing still an issue Following February’s only modest decline in GDP, the economy is on track to do better than the Bank of Canada expected in the first half of the year. But the most recent housing data and this week’s... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Will transactions see a Brexit bounce in 2019? Housing market uncertainty may soon start to ease. But a recovery in mortgage approvals or transactions is still unlikely this year. Indeed, given the high level of house prices relative to earnings... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The 263,000 surge in payroll employment in April was much better than we had expected and kept the six-month trend above 200,000. Some of the details were less positive, with hours worked falling back... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sub-50 Swiss PMI, lower oil prices weigh on NOK As we expected, the KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland edged down in April and remained consistent with Swiss GDP growth staying subdued in quarterly terms this year. The sub-50 reading for the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The larger-than-expected contraction in Brazilian industrial production in March, of 1.3% m/m, means that the Q1 GDP data are likely to be ugly. We’ll firm up our forecast when more data are released... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong Q1 data probably a false dawn The rebound in euro-zone GDP growth to a respectable 0.4% q/q in the first quarter of this year has been greeted by many as proof that the economy is back on track. But we suspect that the expansion... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the European Parliament elections A surge in support for populist parties in European parliamentary elections later this month should have little bearing on economic policy in the near term. After all, moderate parties are still... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Financial sector opening, bad debt disclosures Efforts to open the door to more foreign participation in China’s financial sector took another step forward this week. But without broader free-market reforms, foreign entrants may still struggle to... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC takes a hawkish turn, Brexit hangover in Q2 The most surprising news from the Bank of England’s Inflation Report this week was not the suggestion that interest rates need to rise more quickly than the markets currently anticipate, but the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT’s mixed messages, Polish rate expectations The Turkish central bank’s messaging to investors has become even more confused over the past week and the institution’s damaged credibility means that it will be even more difficult for policymakers... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why bond investors shouldn’t dread the EU elections We doubt that bond markets will be negatively affected by the European Parliament (EP) elections this month, as the rise of anti-EU parties is already widely anticipated and would not necessarily... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South African election, budgets in Nigeria & Kenya We doubt that next week’s South African election will do much to boost President Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform drive. Elsewhere, Kenyan officials released a first draft of next year’s budget, with the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
