Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian wage growth to recover Following several quarters of weakness, Russian wage growth will probably pick up a little over the coming months as public sector salaries are raised and labour market conditions continue to tighten... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will firms pass on rises in labour costs? With CPI inflation still subdued, firms’ profit margins appear to have borne the brunt of the recent rises in wage costs. However, we suspect that firms will pass on rising costs to consumers in time... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: revisiting sovereign debt risks The growing possibility of a lurch to the left in Argentina’s presidential election in October has rekindled sovereign default fears. While the government’s FX debt repayment schedule in the immediate... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Why lower US natural gas stocks are here to stay US natural gas stocks have remained stubbornly low in recent years. We think that this reflects a new norm in the natural gas market which is eroding the impact of stock levels on prices. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) A gentle rise in mortgage interest rates over April helped cut mortgage applications for home purchase in the latter part of the month. And with home buying sentiment only receiving a modest boost... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone activity surveys too pessimistic? The official euro-zone activity data for Q1 were much stronger than the message from the business and consumer surveys. But we still think that the consistent weakness of the survey evidence bodes ill... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Shying away from borrowing to spend on big items The subdued rise in borrowing in March may be because Brexit has sapped households’ desire to borrow to buy big items. At the aggregate level, low interest rates mean that debt is still manageable. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The fall back in the manufacturing PMI in April was to be expected after activity was boosted by Brexit preparations ahead of the original Brexit date of 29th March, and suggests manufacturing output... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) We doubt that March’s slump in mortgage approvals signals the start of a collapse in mortgage lending. Rather, assuming a Brexit deal is done later this year, we think lending will see a modest fall... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) A strong increase in net lending in March boosted the Q1 total but we think that concerns about property values, particularly in the retail sector, will prevent a sustained rise in net lending this... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More monetary tightening lies in store in Romania The National Bank of Romania’s decision to maintain strict control over money market liquidity marks a step in the right direction to addressing the large build-up of economic imbalances. But we think... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) House price growth was subdued in April, and we expect that trend to continue across our forecast – even assuming a Brexit deal is agreed later this year. 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is the worst now over for Korean exporters? The rebound in Korean exports in April, which was mainly due to a further recovery in demand for semi-conductors, supports our view that the worst is now over for the export sector and the broader... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Growth in frontiers has probably bottomed out Aggregate frontier market GDP growth probably slowed to its weakest pace since early 2017 in Q1 and, while we think that this should mark the bottom of the cycle, activity in most frontiers will... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown has further to run After reaching a three-year high in Q4 2018, GDP growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed at the start of this year as the drag from oil output cuts has more than offset a pick-up in activity in the non-oil... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors still banking on an unlikely revival in China’s economy 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
