Europe Economics Update Election outcome won’t end Spanish outperformance Following this weekend’s election, we suspect that Spain’s next government will tighten fiscal policy slightly, contributing to slower GDP growth over the coming years. But the country still looks set... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does a Labor victory mean for Australia? Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter under a Labor government than under the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Slump in inflation to prompt cut to 1.25% We suspect that the sharp fall in underlying inflation in the first quarter will be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates to 1.25% on Tuesday 7th May. And given... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Strong US growth fails to impress commodities The prices of commodities mostly fell this week, despite Friday’s data showing stronger-than-expected Q1 growth in the US. Even oil prices ended this week lower. Having initially jumped when the US... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade volumes set to contract again in Q1 After a partial rebound at the start of the year, world trade volumes fell again in February – the fourth drop in six months. They look to have recovered a bit in March, and export orders in parts of... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz in no rush to re-consider rate hikes There was never any doubt that the Bank of Canada would keep policy unchanged when it met earlier this week, although its decision to drop any reference to future interest rate hikes from its policy... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina: pricing political risk, CA now in balance? Argentine markets have stabilised today but, by our estimates, the aggressive sell-off earlier this week has resulted in the political risk premium on dollar bonds widening to around 200bp. We think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth weakest in nearly three years in Q1 Economic growth in the emerging world appears to have slowed further in the first quarter of this year, to its weakest pace since Q2 2016. Early indicators suggest that activity picked up at the end... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing outlook soft out to 2021 With Brexit delayed, a recovery in transactions and house prices is unlikely this year. But even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed by October, high house prices and rising interest rates will leave... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Core French assets still offer good value A period of low, but stable growth and historically low interest rates will be supportive of demand for French assets over the next few years. While the retail sector is seeing evidence of some re... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Dollar’s rise likely to continue, even if US GDP growth slips back 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mixed messages from the Riksbank The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance this week was a step in the right direction, but we still think that policymakers and investors are overestimating the potential for interest rate... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Underlying weakness will keep the Fed cautious There were plenty of positive headlines for the US economy this week, with GDP growth accelerating in the first quarter, durable goods orders surging in March, and the S&P 500 hitting a record high... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What lacklustre global growth means for commodities We have long expected that sluggish global demand will weigh on commodity prices in 2019. That said, recent indicators have led some to suggest that global growth may be bottoming out. But we disagree... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish elections, new oil price forecasts Spain’s economy is performing well in the run-up to Sunday’s general election, but we expect growth there to slow. Meanwhile, although we have revised up our oil price forecasts, energy inflation... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s dovish shift misjudged, Czech signals rate hike The Turkish central bank’s dovish shift yesterday spooked investors and, with a number of flashpoints ahead for the lira, we think that it’s too soon for policymakers to be signalling interest rate... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
