US Data Response GDP (Q1) The 3.2% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP, which was well above the consensus forecast at 2.0%, would seem to make a mockery of claims that the economy is slowing as the fiscal stimulus fades... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenyan growth, Ethiopian reforms, (another) cyclone in Moz. The latest figures show that Kenya’s economy accelerated in 2018, but a worsening drought will cut growth this year. Elsewhere, a second cyclone is hitting Mozambique, dealing another blow to the... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Equities may fall further as recovery underwhelms The less dovish tone of recent comments from the People’s Bank and from Premier Li is the latest sign that policymakers are keen to avoid the sort of debt-financed surge in growth that followed... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank takes a chance on QT For now, the Riksbank is in the peculiar position of trying to ease and tighten policy at the same time. But with economic growth and core inflation set to remain subdued, we expect policy tightening... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Does a change in the BoE Governor matter? While the next Governor of the Bank of England may change lots of things within the Bank, the economic data will remain the biggest driver of monetary policy. And if Labour won the next general... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank signals rate cut is imminent The dovish nature of the Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement has prompted us to bring forward the interest rate cut that we had pencilled in for Q3 to June. Further ahead, we forecast that... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in borrowing, rise in inflation, local elections looming The recent rise in oil prices adds to our view that inflation is likely to be higher over the next couple of years than is widely expected. This only increases the chances that, eventually, the Bank... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus Ethiopia’s reforms: Push forward or risk falling back PM Abiy Ahmed’s political and economic reforms have drawn attention to Ethiopia’s huge potential. But the process remains fragile and could easily be reversed. Developing a private sector-led... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Higher oil prices, Korean investment slump Despite the recent rise in oil prices, inflation across the region is likely to remain subdued throughout 2019. We don’t think higher oil prices will stop Asian central banks from raising interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Mar.) March’s surprise rise in mortgage approvals is unlikely to be repeated next month. That said, the fact that lending has held up fairly well in the face of Brexit uncertainty so far, supports our view... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Outlook Calling time on the oil price rally Our forecast of sluggish global growth, further increases in US output and a rise in investor risk aversion suggests that the recent rally in oil prices will prove short-lived. In contrast, we think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK interest rates lower for longer Recent developments suggest that UK GDP growth will be lower for a bit longer. As such, with interest rates unlikely to rise as quickly, bond yields should put less upward pressure on property yields... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Spain’s economy will slow but continue to outperform Spain’s period of very strong growth has come to an end. Nevertheless, the latest data suggest that in the run-up to this weekend’s election, it is growing at a decent pace. And there still appears to... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP’s election woes The LDP’s recent by-election defeats have generated speculation that the party may do poorly in July’s Upper House election and that the government may delay October’s sales tax hike yet again. But... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies starting to slow GDP figures released over the past month showed that the largest Gulf economies recorded strong growth towards the end of last year, but a fresh slowdown has got underway at the start of 2019. This... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rout in Argentine markets to trigger policy response Argentine policymakers are likely to have been spooked by the rout in local markets in recent days, and the experience of the past few weeks suggests that they will be tempted to respond with more... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
