US Economics Weekly Headline GDP masks underlying weakness This week’s data releases helped to confirm that first-quarter GDP growth was much better than we originally feared, but the underlying strength of the domestic economy is a concern. As it stands now... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 1.0% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in March was not enough to prevent real consumption growth from slowing sharply in the first quarter, although it does at least provide a decent base... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Beautifully behaved The unemployment rate is close to the natural rate, inflation is close to the target and GDP growth is close to the economy’s potential rate, but interest rates are well below most estimates of the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank on hold, Finland coalition talks to drag on The Riksbank is all but certain to keep its repo rate unchanged at -0.25% at its policy meeting next week. Meanwhile, coalition negotiations following last week’s election in Finland are likely to... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth slowed markedly at the start of this year, weakening from 2.8% y/y in Q4 to 1.0-1.5% y/y in Q1. The pace of expansion is likely to remain soft... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger Q1 GDP growth would not be sustained The reasonably strong run of hard data for the first two months of the year has prompted us to revised up our estimate of Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% q/q. However, the downbeat tone of the business surveys... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s 0.8% m/m rise in retail sales was a pleasant surprise given the unusually severe winter weather that month. Although consumer confidence has rebounded a touch so far this year, it is still... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Much too soon to call a recovery We expect the recent weakness of global growth to persist for much longer than is commonly assumed. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the US and China’s stimulus... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rotterdam offices top the league With prime rents in Rotterdam expected to grow by 7.5% in the next three years, we expect strong investor demand for the city to drive some of the largest office sector yield falls in Europe. This... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook In the shadow of the euro-zone Weak growth in the euro-zone overshadows near-term prospects in Switzerland and the Nordics. We expect activity to slow in most countries this year and to stay sluggish in 2020. As a result, price... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish fiscal plans, Turkish economy past the worst Plans outlined by Poland’s government this week confirmed that fiscal policy will be loosened significantly this year and that there will be more scope for stimulus in 2020 than we had previously... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Not only did retail sales post a bumper rise in March, but February’s figure was revised up too, adding to the evidence that despite the political chaos, the economy grew at a decent rate of 0.3% q/q... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) There was an unexpected loosening in credit conditions at the start of the year. But with no let-up in economic uncertainty and continued gloom about the outlook for housing, we expected this will be... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian competitiveness, Lebanon’s budget The Egyptian government’s decision this week to impose import tariffs on steel rebars and iron pellets highlights the government’s slippage on structural reforms and also suggests that the pound may... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The disappointing flash PMIs for April suggest that, despite some stronger industrial production data in the first couple of months of this year, the euro-zone is not yet out of the woods. They also... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Stable inflation, Weak Q1 in SA, Emefiele’s legacy Soft inflation readings across Africa this week supported our view that policymakers will cut rates in key economies. New figures added to the evidence that South Africa stumbled in Q1, while Nigerian... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
